摘要
县域作为城市与乡村连接的关键纽带,与城市或乡村相比,其人口变化有一定的特殊性。同时相较于发达地区,欠发达地区人口增长与收缩并存的现象更为明显。基于此,以甘肃省县域空间为实证对象,基于标准差椭圆、人口集聚度模型、GMM模型对县域人口空间分布格局演变、集散特征及驱动机制进行系统分析。结果发现:2000-2020年间,甘肃省县域人口规模空间分布的中心点出现明显波动,同时受周边城市经济发展环境的逐步改善,近20年间县域人口呈现由陇中向周边回流的趋势,这与兰州市弱省会对要素吸纳能力有限有很大关系。其次,甘肃省县域人口在经历一段增长后出现新一轮流失,县域空间连片收缩现象较为显著。同时受公共服务、基础设施、就业机会等不均等化布局,人口由郊区县城向中心城区迁移的趋势依然明显,中心城区依旧是区域人口集聚的关键区域。此外,从县域人口空间分布的驱动机制来看,经济发展水平、工业发展水平和社会保障水平对人口规模具有显著的正向影响,但农业发展水平和信息化水平对人口规模具有负向影响,这与农村剩余劳动力转移倒逼农业科技发展有关。
As the key link between urban and rural areas,the population change of counties has certain particularity compared with urban or rural.At the same time,compared with developed areas,the phenomenon of population flow growth and contraction in less developed areas is more obvious.The research takes the counties of Gansu Province as the empirical object,and based on the standard deviation ellipse,the population agglomeration model,and the GMM model,it systematically analyzes the evolution of the spatial distribution pattern,distribution characteristics and driving mechanism of the county population.Results found:From 2000 to 2020,the spatial distribution center of population of the counties in Gansu fluctuated significantly,and due to the gradual improvement of the economic development environment of the surrounding cities,the population in the county area has shown a trend of returning from Longzhong to the surrounding area in the past 20 years,which has a lot to do with the limited absorption capacity of the weak provincial capital of Lanzhou.Second,the county population has experienced a new round of loss after a period of growth,and the phenomenon of contiguous shrinkage of the county is more significant.At the same time,due to the uneven layout of public services,infrastructure,employment opportunities and so on,the trend of population migration from suburban counties to central urban areas is still obvious,and the central urban area is still the key area of regional population agglomeration.Third,from the analysis of the driving mechanism of the change of spatial distribution of the county population,the level of economic development,industrial development and social security has a significant positive impact on the spatial distribution of the county population,but the level of agricultural development and informatization has a negative impact.Which is related to the transfer of rural surplus labor force forcing the development of agricultural science and technology.
作者
王绍博
刘峻峰
燕飞飞
毛锦凰
WANG Shao-bo;LIU Jun-feng;YAN Fei-fei;MAO Jin-huang(Institute of County Economic Development,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;College of Earth and Environment Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;School of Business,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215009,China;School of Economics and Management,Hunan Institute of Science and Technology,Yueyang 414006,China)
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期60-72,共13页
Population and Development
基金
甘肃省青年科技基金项目“新常态背景下甘肃省县域空间人口迁移格局、特征及动力机制研究”(21JR7RA523)
兰州市哲学社科规划项目:“‘强省会’下兰州引领区域协调发展研究”(22-A14)
中国科学院“西部之光”项目:原住居民融入祁连山国家公园建设的路径研究(E0290906)。
关键词
人口迁移
县域
空间演变
动力机制
甘肃
Population Migration
County
Spatial Evolution
Dynamic Mechanism
Gansu
