摘要
目的应用空间回归模型定量分析贵州省2020—2021年流感季社会经济因素对老年人流感疫苗接种率影响。方法以普通线性回归模型(ordinary least squares,OLS)为基础,基于模型的LM诊断、Robust LM诊断以及R2、AIC与SC值的比较,选择最宜的空间回归模型,分析社会经济因素对老年人流感疫苗接种的影响。结果2020—2021年流感季贵州省共有84155名≥65岁老年人接种流感疫苗,人群接种率2.15%;OLS结果显示,人均可支配收入、地区国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)指标差异有统计学意义(t=6.213,3.328 P<0.05),人均GDP差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);基于模型选择和比较的结果,本研究最适宜采用空间滞后模型(spatial lag model,SLM),该模型的空间自回归系数为0.684(P<0.05),表明相邻区域间老年人流感疫苗接种率存在空间正向依赖;SLM结果显示,老年人流感疫苗接种率随区域人均可支配收入和GDP的增加而升高,且两个指标的回归系数人均可支配收入(β=3.678,P<0.05)大于地区GDP(β=0.002,P<0.05)。结论区域人均可支配收入指标对老年人流感疫苗接种率影响较大,提示人均可支配收入低的区域老年人流感疫苗的接种值得关注。
Objective To quantitatively analyze the impact of socioeconomic factors on the coverage rate of influenza vaccine among the elderly in Guizhou province during the 2020-2021 influenza season using spatial regression model.Methods Based on the LM diagnosis,Robust LM diagnosis,R2,AIC and SC values obtained by running the ordinary least squares(OLS)linear regression model,the optimal spatial regression model was generated and used to assess the impact of social-economic factors on influenza vaccination in the elderly.Results A total of 84155 elder people aged≥65 years in Guizhou province received influenza vacine during the 2020-2021 influenza season,with an overall coverage rate of 2.15%.OLS results showed that the differences in per capita disposable income and regional GDP indicators were statistically significant(t=6.213,3.328 P<0.05),while the difference in per capita GDP was not statistically significant(P>0.05).Based on the results of model selection and comparison,the spatial lag model(SLM)was considered the most suitable model for this study,and the spatial autoregressive coefficient of SLM was 0.684(P<0.05),indicating that there was a spatial positive dependence of influenza vaccination rate in the elderly living in two neighboring regions.SLM results showed that the coverage rate of influenza vaccine in the elderly increased with the increase of regional per capita disposable income and GDP,and the regression coefficient of per capita disposable income(β=3.678,P<0.05)was greater than that of regional GDP(β=0.002,P<0.05).Conclusions Regional per capita disposable income index has a relatively greater influence on the influenza vaccination rate in the elderly,suggesting that more attentions should be payed to those living in a region with low per capita disposable income in order to increase the coverage rate of influenza vaccine.
作者
陈太好
汪俊华
张江萍
叶新贵
冯军
CHEN Taihao;WANG Junhua;ZHANG Jiangping;YE Xingui;FENG Jun(School of Public Health,the Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control,Ministry of Education,Guizhou Medical University,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025,China;不详)
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期352-357,共6页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
贵州省科技计划[黔科合支撑(2020)4Y168号]
贵州省卫生健康委科学技术基金(gzwkj2022-213)。
关键词
老年人
流感疫苗
社会经济因素
空间回归模型
The elderly
Influenza vaccine
Social-economic factor
Spatial regression model
