摘要
为了指导台风初期的预报和保障,采用主观预报法和客观预报法(以下称数值预报法),分别对常用的4种预报结果进行对比分析。主观预报法选取常用的中、美、日、韩4家机构发布的预报数据,对2021年台风首次主观路径预报准确率和强度预报准确率进行分析,结果表明:各家首次路径预报误差较大,可信度低;首次强度预报结果可信度高。数值预报法选取常用的中国GRAPES、美国NCEP、欧洲ECMWF、日本JMA 4个数值模式预报结果,分析模式路径预报准确率和强度预报准确率,结果表明:欧洲ECMWF路径预报相较其他模式准确性具有绝对优势;强度预报准确率美国NCEP较好。进一步对比了2017—2021年4家数值模式台风预报结果,并对各数值模式的性能发展趋势进行分析。
To offer guidance for the forecasting and ensure operational support during the initial phase of typhoons,this work uses both subjective and objective forecasting(the latter to be referred as“numerical forecasting”hereafter)methods to compare and analyze four frequently-used forecast results.For the subjec-tive approach,the forecast data from four agencies in China,the USA,Japan and Korea are used to analyze the accuracy of first subjective route forecasts and first intensity forecasts for each of the typhoons active in 2021.The results are shown as follows.For each of the typhoons in 2021,the first route forecast has large errors and little reliability but the first intensity forecast is highly reliable.The numerical forecasting methods involved include the GRAPES in China,NCEP in the USA,ECMWF in Europe and JMA in Japan.With the accuracy of both the route and intensity model forecasts compared,it is shown that the route forecast by EC-MWF is much more accurate than that of all the other three and its intensity forecast is better than that of NCEP.This work then compares the numerical typhoon forecasts by the four agencies from 2017 to 2021 and analyzes the tendency of performance development of the individual numerical models.
作者
周毅
杨涛
杨波
李家林
ZHOU Yi;YANG Tao;YANG Bo;LI Jia-lin(Unit 92682,People's Liberation Army,Zhanjiang 524002)
出处
《广东气象》
2023年第3期18-22,共5页
Guangdong Meteorology
