摘要
为研究安全生产受经济波动冲击所产生的时变特征,从而更好地匹配经济和安全发展速度,基于近30年(1990—2020年,下同)我国安全生产状况波动趋势,采用灰色关联度分析法计算各宏观因素对事故风险的累积贡献度,并引入具有时变参数的TVP-VAR模型,探索各因素在不同时期对安全生产状况的动态冲击作用。研究结果表明:就业结构、产业结构、人口效应和城市化进程构成生产安全事故状况主要驱动力,在1998,2004,2015年3个重要时点的时变性较弱,在不同提前期受其自身特征影响较大;30年间就业结构、产业结构、人口效应的影响大小震荡衰减,短期内促使安全生产状况恶化,中长期内对其起抑制作用;城市化进程冲击效果循序渐进,短期内对安全生产状况起改善作用,中长期给维护安全生产带来新的威胁。研究结果可为未来经济发展和安全生产的持续良性互动提供一定参考思路。
In order to study the time-varying characteristics of work safety impacted by economic fluctuation,so as to better match the speed of economic and safety development,the grey correlation analysis method was used to calculate the cumulative contribution of each macro factor to the accident risk based on the fluctuation trend of domestic work safety situation in China from 1990 to 2020.Thus,the time-varying parametric vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR)model with time-varying parameters was also introduced to analyze the dynamic impact of each factor on the work safety situation in different periods.The results showed that the employment structure,industrial structure,population effect and urbanization process constituted the main driving force,the time variability of three major time points in 1998,2004 and 2015 was weak,and it was greatly affected by its own characteristics in different lead time.From 1990 to 2020,the impact of employment structure,industrial structure and population effect presented the oscillating attenuation,which promoted the deterioration of work safety situation in the short term and played inhibition role in the medium and long term.The impact effect of urbanization process was gradual,which played the improvement role in the short term,and brought new threats to the maintenance of work safety situation in the medium and long term.The research results can provide some ideas and references for the sustainable and benign interaction between economic development and work safety in the future.
作者
张江石
冒香凝
刘伟
ZHANG Jiangshi;MAO Xiangning;LIU Wei(School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期5-13,共9页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
