摘要
随着老龄化程度的加深,我国职工医保统筹基金可持续性受到威胁。本文以上海市职工医保为例,建立职工医保统筹基金精算模型,分析八套延迟退休方案对上海市职工医保基金财务运行的影响,研究发现:如果仍实行现行退休政策,统筹基金将分别于2024年和2034年开始出现当期赤字和累计赤字。如果实施先延迟女性、后延迟男性退休年龄的方案,当延退速度为每年延迟2个月、3个月、4个月和6个月时,统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点不变,2050年累计赤字规模逐渐减小。如果实施同时延迟男、女性退休年龄的方案,四种延退速度方案下均可延后统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点,2050年累计赤字规模进一步缩小。如果将退休职工纳入医保缴纳人群,能够进一步改善基金情况。可见,延迟退休年龄政策能在一定程度上提高上海市职工医保基金的抗风险能力。据此,本文提出尽快实施延迟退休年龄及其他提高医保基金可持续性的政策、辅以配套措施助力延迟退休年龄政策实施等建议。
With the deepening of the aging,the sustainability of the employee medical insurance pooling fund is threatened.In this paper,we develop an actuarial model of employee medical insurance pooling fund and analyze the impact of eight delayed retirement schemes on the financial operation of the Shanghai employee medical insurance fund,and find that if the current retirement policy is still implemented,the fund will start to experience current and accumulated deficits in 2024 and 2034 respectively.If the retirement age of women is delayed first and then that of men is delayed,the accumulated deficit of the fund will be reduced gradually in 2050 when the retirement rate is delayed by 2,3,4 and 6 months per year.If the retirement age of both men and women is delayed,the accumulated deficit of the fund will be postponed under all four retirement speed schemes,and the accumulated deficit scale will be further reduced in 2050.If retired employees are included in the medical insurance contributors,the fund situation can be further improved.It can be seen that the policy of delaying the retirement age can improve the risk resistance of Shanghai employee medical insurance fund to a certain extent.Accordingly,it is proposed to implement the deferred retirement age policy as soon as possible,assist with supporting measures to help the implementation of the deferred retirement age policy and further implement other policies to improve the sustainability of the medical insurance fund.
出处
《财政科学》
2023年第5期72-87,共16页
Fiscal Science
基金
国家自然科学基金一般项目“推进养老金全国统筹的参与方行为激励与权益保障机制研究”(基金号:72174064)
教育部人文社科规划基金项目“权益流动机制:职工基本养老保险全国统筹的实现路径研究”(基金号:19YJA630050)
国家智能社会治理实验基地(养老)(华东师范大学经济与管理学部公共管理学院和上海市长宁区民政局联合共建)的资助。
关键词
职工医保
延迟退休
基金平衡
Basic Medical Insurance for Urban Employees
Postpone Retirement Age
Fund Balance