摘要
为分析航空出行者到达机场出行方式选择偏好及影响因素,考虑出行者心理疲劳度异质性建立潜类别Logit模型。通过交通调查获取航空出行者个体特征及出行选择;根据心理疲劳评分将出行者分类,建立潜类别Logit模型,与混合Logit模型对比分析;对影响航空出行者到达机场方式选择的因素进行分析。结果表明:潜类别Logit模型具有更高的拟合优度,根据出行者心理疲劳度分类,可分为3个潜类别,分别占比36%、48%、16%。出行者的性别、年龄、收入、身体质量指数、是否携带大件行李、是否拥有私家车、是否独自出行对到达方式选择具有显著影响。心理疲劳度的提高使出行者对于出行花费的敏感度降低,低度心理疲劳型出行者更在意出行花费。在低心理疲劳出行者群体中,感知风险、情绪反映显著且系数为负,每增加1个单位,出行者属于地铁偏好群体的几率比分别降低48%、42%;态度反映、感知便捷显著且系数为正,每增加1个单位,出行者属于地铁偏好群体的几率比分别增加89%、67%。在出行方式选择中考虑心理特征对更深入了解可持续交通具有重要意义。
In order to analyze the preference and influencing factors of air passengers’travel mode choice of getting to an airport,this paper establishes a latent category Logit model considering the heterogeneity of passengers’psychological fatigue.Firstly,a questionnaire survey at Nanjing Lukou Airport is conducted to obtain individual characteristics,psychological states and travel habits of 580 travelers,and psychological states of travelers are quantified by a five-level Likert scale,in which intrinsic attributes of the psychological states include perceived risk,emotional reflection,attitude reflection and perceived convenience.Secondly,the psychological state of travelers is assessed by using the psychological state scale,which includes seven dimensions:tension,fatigue,panic,depression,anger,energy and sense of self-esteem.Travelers are also classified according to the psychological fatigue score,and a latent category Logit model is established and compared with the mixed Logit model for analysis.Finally,the model parameters and marginal effects are evaluated,and the factors influencing air travelers’choice of airport arrival modes are analyzed based on the model results.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the latent category Logit model is 60.8%,and that of the mixed Logit model is 55.9%,indicating that the latent category Logit model has a better fitting effect.According to the classification of passengers’mental fatigue,passengers can be classified into low,medium and severe mental fatigue types,accounting for 36%,48%and 16%respectively.The low,medium and severe mental fatigue travelers correspond to the subway preference group,the airport bus preference group and the cab preference group respectively.Travelers’gender,age,income,body mass index and situations like whether they carry bulky luggage,whether they own a private car,and whether they travel alone also have significant effects on the choice of arrival mode.An increase in mental fatigue makes travelers less sensitive to travel costs
作者
潘义勇
王心悦
蒋冠宇
魏双秋
PAN Yiyong;WANG Xinyue;JIANG Guanyu;WEI Shuangqiu(College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)
出处
《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第5期150-158,共9页
Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51508280)
南京林业大学高学历人才基金项目(GXL2014031)。
关键词
出行方式选择
潜类别Logit模型
心理特征
出行者异质性
心理疲劳
travel mode choice
latent category Logit model
psychological characteristics
traveler heterogeneity
psychological fatigue
