摘要
利用常规气象观测和NECP再分析资料,对广西2022年6月11日极端暴雨过程进行分析,结果表明:(1)本次过程具有暴雨范围广、累积雨量大、极端性强、致灾性高和双雨带的特点;(2)边界层侵入的浅薄冷空气是桂中雨带的重要触发机制,而桂南雨带则是由超低空急流脉动配合海陆地形的影响共同触发;(3)中尺度对流系统的有组织发展,以及回波在后向传播移动过程中形成“列车效应”,同时配合季风爆发带来的充沛水汽供应和低质心暖云高效率降水是造成多地出现极端暴雨的重要原因;(4)在暖区降水的预报中,CMA-GD和CMA-MESO模式往往有较好的表现,预报员需加强中尺度模式的分析应用,警惕中尺度模式预报中突发的对流系统,有利于提高极端暴雨的预报能力。
Using conventional meteorological observation and NECP reanalysis data,an extreme rainstorm process in Guangxi is analyzed in this paper.The results show that:(1)This process is characterized by a wide rainstorm range,largely accumulated rainfall,strong extremes,high disaster-causing and double rainbands;(2)The shallow cold air intruding from the boundary layer is an important trigger mechanism for the rainbands in central Guangxi,while the rainbands in southern Guangxi are triggered by the ultra-low-level jet pulsations with the influence of land-sea topography;(3)The organized development of mesoscale convective systems and the formation of"train effect"during the backward propagation of echoes,together with the abundant water vapor supply brought by the monsoon outbreak and the high efficiency of precipitation from low-mass warm clouds,are important causes of extreme rainstorms in many places;(4)The CMA-CD and CMA-MESO models tend to have better performance in the forecast of precipitation in warm areas.Forecasters need to strengthen the analysis and application of mesoscale models and be alert to the sudden rise of convective systems in mesoscale model forecasting,which is conducive to improving the forecasting ability of extreme rainstorms.
作者
蒋亚平
农明哲
马智
郭彬
陆小晓
黎福仁
Jiang Yaping;Nong Mingzhe;Ma Zhi;Guo Bin;Lu Xiaoxiao;Li Furen(Chongzuo Meteorological Bureau,Guangxi Chongzuo 532200,China)
出处
《气象研究与应用》
2023年第1期57-63,共7页
Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
基金
广西壮族自治区气象局面上项目(桂气科2023M29)
崇左市气象局面上项目(崇气科202101)。
