摘要
脆弱性作为系统的内在特征,程度越高越不利于区域高质量发展。论文从敏感性和恢复力两个角度构建经济—社会—生态复合系统脆弱性评价指标体系,运用BP神经网络模型实现各子系统指标到系统脆弱性的映射,分析黄河下游地区复合系统脆弱性的时空分布格局和障碍度因子。结果表明:2001—2020年,黄河下游地区各子系统和复合系统脆弱性指数均在波动中不断下降,下降幅度整体呈现逐渐放慢的特征;在空间分布上,河南省6个地市复合系统脆弱性指数整体上高于山东省9个地市;复合系统脆弱性指数的前五大障碍因素由经济因素逐渐向生态因素转变。基于此,提出应保护和建设多种类型的局部生态系统,形成互补生态,促进复合系统协同发展的持续性,合理调整复合系统的内部结构,增强复合系统韧性的建议。
As an inherent characteristic of the system,the higher the degree of vulnerability is,the worse the regional high-quality development will be.In this paper,the vulnerability evaluation index system of the economic-social-ecological composite system was constructed from two perspectives of sensitivity and resilience.The BP neural network model was used to realize the mapping of each subsystem index to the vulnerability of the system,and the spatial and temporal distribution pattern and obstacle degree factor of the vulnerability of the composite system in the lower Yellow River region were analyzed.The results show that from 2001 to 2020,the vulnerability indices of subsystems and composite systems in the lower Yellow River region are all decreasing in the fluctuation,and the decreasing range is gradually slowing down.In terms of spatial distribution,the composite system vulnerability index of 6 cities in Henan Province is higher than that of 9 cities in Shandong Province.The first five obstacle factors of the composite system vulnerability index gradually changed from economic factors to ecological factors.Based on this,it is suggested that we should protect and construct various types of local ecosystems,form complementary ecology,promote the sustainable development of the composite system,adjust the internal structure of the composite system reasonably,and enhance the toughness of the composite system.
作者
何慧爽
张慧
HE Huishuang;ZHANG Hui(School of Management and Economics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou Henan 450046,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2023年第6期174-181,共8页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“黄河下游滩区生态系统服务价值评估及生态综合补偿机制研究”(21BJY219)。
关键词
黄河下游地区
复合系统
脆弱性
lower reaches of Yellow River
complex system
vulnerability
