摘要
目的观察阿立哌唑治疗首发中青年精神分裂症(SCH)患者疗效的影响因素,并建立预测模型。方法选取2019年11月至2021年11月本院精神科100例应用阿立哌唑治疗的首发中青年SCH患者,依据治疗3个月后临床效果分为疗效良好组、疗效不良组。统计比较两组一般资料,通过Logistic回归分析探讨患者疗效影响因素,并依据筛选出的独立危险因素建立预测模型,以患者工作特征(ROC)曲线观察各个独立危险因素及预测模型对患者疗效的预测价值。结果本组100例首发中青年SCH患者治疗3个月后疗效良好患者83例,占83.00%;疗效不良患者17例,占17.00%。两组病程、婚姻状态、饮酒、吸烟、糖尿病相比,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);Logistic回归分析发现,病程、饮酒、吸烟、糖尿病均为患者疗效不良独立危险因素(P<0.05),婚姻状态并非患者疗效不良独立危险因素(P>0.05);ROC曲线分析发现,病程、饮酒、吸烟、糖尿病用于患者疗效预测均有一定价值;应用筛选出的独立危险因素建立预测模型,通过ROC曲线分析得出,预测模型的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.867,标准误差为0.037,P<0.001,95%CI为0.795~0.939,取最佳界值点时,预测敏感度为94.12%,特异度为77.11%。结论阿立哌唑治疗首发中青年SCH患者疗效的影响因素包括病程、饮酒、吸烟、糖尿病,应用上述影响因素建立的预测模型对患者疗效具有良好预测效能。
Objective To observe the influencing factors of the efficacy of aripiprazole in the treatment of first-episode young and middle-aged schizophrenia(SCH)patients,and to establish a predictive model.Methods 100 first-episode young and middle-aged Sch patients treated with aripiprazole in the psychiatric department of Huzhou Third People's Hospital from November 2019 to November 2021 were selected.They were divided into the good effect group and the poor effect group according to the clinical effect after 3 months of the treatment.The general data of the two groups were statistically compared,and the related influencing factors of the patient's curative effect were explored through Logistic regression analysis,and a prediction model was established based on the screened independent risk factors.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to observe the predictive value of each independent risk factor and the prediction model for patient efficacy.Results Among the 100 first-episode young and middle-aged SCH patients in this group,83 had good curative effect after 3 months of the treatment,accounting for 83.00%.17 in the group had poor curative effect,accounting for 17.00%.There were significant differences in the course of disease,marital status,drinking,smoking and diabetes between the two groups(P<0.05).The logistic regression analysis found that the course of disease,drinking,smoking,and diabetes mellitus were all independent risk factors for poor curative effect(P<0.05),while marital status was not an independent risk factor for poor curative effect(P>0.05).ROC curve analysis found that the course of disease,drinking,smoking,and diabetes mellitus had certain value in predicting the efficacy of patients.The selected independent risk factors were used to establish a prediction model,and the ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of the prediction model was 0.867,P<0.001,and the 95%CI was 0.795~0.938.When the optimal cut-off point was taken,the prediction sensitivity was 94.12%,the specificity was 77.11%
出处
《浙江临床医学》
2023年第4期481-484,共4页
Zhejiang Clinical Medical Journal
基金
浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目(2018KY787)。
关键词
阿立哌唑
中青年
精神分裂症
影响因素
预测模型
Aripiprazole
Young and middle-aged
Schizophrenia
Influencing factors
Predictive model
