摘要
目前,我国电力市场以中长期交易为主,并正逐步过渡到与现货交易并存的市场模式。作为市场新主体,发/售电一体型集团公司面临风、光等可再生能源发电机组出力不稳定、终端用户负荷波动等不确定因素造成利润损失风险的问题。提出了一种风险规避因子连续型动态调整方法,构建了发电、售电公司利润损失风险条件价值模型。在此基础上,以发/售电公司合作博弈下中长期交易利润不小于非合作下的利润为约束,提出考虑利润损失风险的集团公司中长期交易合作博弈决策模型。通过2家发电和1家售电子公司组成的集团公司中长期交易的数值仿真,发/售电的合作联盟方式有效提升了可再生能源发电、火力发电和售电子公司的利润80.93%、58.37%和55.51%;分析了动态调整型风险规避因子与子公司交易利润的关系,并给出了合作博弈的交易电价区间。
At present,Chinas electricity market is mainly based on medium-and long-term transactions and is gradually transitioning to a market model of long-term transactions and spot transactions.As a new market entity,integrated power generation and trading companies face the risk of profit loss caused by uncertain factors,such as the unstable output of renewable energy generating units and load fluctuation of end users.In this study,a continuous dynamic adjustment method for risk aversion factors is proposed,and a conditional value risk model of profit and loss for power-generating and powertrading companies is developed.On this basis,the medium-and long-term trading profit under the cooperative game between power generation and power trading companies is consistently higher than the profit under the non-cooperative game as a constraint,and a medium-and long-term trading cooperation game decision-making model of integrated companies considering the risk of profit loss and the optimal shareholding ratio of power generation and power trading is proposed.Numerical simulation results show that the alliance transaction effectively improve the profits of all subsidiaries.The relationship between the value of the dynamic adjustment risk aversion factor and subsidiary trading profits is analyzed.The trading price interval for the cooperative game is provided.
作者
杨洪明
吴静斌
YANG Hongming;WU Jingbin(School of Economics&Management,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China;School of Electrical&Information Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,International Joint Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Operation and Planning of Energy Internet based on Distributed Photovoltaic-Storage Energy,Changsha 410114,China)
出处
《电力建设》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期149-160,共12页
Electric Power Construction
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72061147004,71931003)。
关键词
中长期交易
发/售电一体型集团公司
动态调整型风险规避因子
合作博弈
medium-and long-term trading
power-generating and trading integrated company
dynamically adjustable risk aversion factor
cooperative game
