摘要
基于共享社会经济路径(SSP)中SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585情景,运用最大熵模型预测青藏高原濒危植物山著和铃铛子的潜在分布.结果表明,海拔、年降水量、等温性、最冷季平均温度是影响山若和铃铛子潜在分布的主要环境因子.在当前气候条件下,山若和铃铛子适宜生境面积分别占青藏高原的9.85%和7.19%,主要分布在西藏、四川、青海、甘肃和云南.与当前气候条件下的适生区分布面积相比,山若在2050sSSP370、SSP585情景和2070sSSP126情景下的适宜生境面积存在不同程度的减少,在2050sSSP370气候情景下适宜生境与低适宜生境总面积减少72288km^(2).与当前气候条件下的适生区分布面积相比,铃铛子在2050sSSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585四种气候情景下的适宜生境面积都有不同程度的增加,在2050sSSP370气候情景下适宜生境和低适宜生境总面积扩张到541766km^(2),占青藏高原总面积的21.07%.与当前气候条件下的适生区分布平均海拔相比,山若在4种未来气候情景下适宜生境的平均海拔均有所降低,分布在3700~3836m.与当前气候条件下的适生区分布平均海拔相比,铃铛子的适宜生境平均海拔在2050sSSP126情景和2070sSSP585情景下有所上升.
The potential distribution of endangered plants Anisodus tanguticus and Anisodus luridus in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were predicted based on the shared socio-economic pathways(SSPs)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)using the MaxEnt(maximum entropy)model.The results showed that elevation,annual precipitation,isothermality and mean temperature of coldest quarter were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of A.tanguticus and A.luridus.Under the current climate conditions,the suitable habitat areas of A.tanguticus and A.luridus respectively accounted for 9.85%and 7.19%of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,and were mainly distributed in Tibet,Sichuan,Qinghai,Gansu and Yunnan.Compared with the distribution area of the suitable habitats under the current climate conditions,the suitable habitat area of A.tanguticus under the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios in the 2050s and the SSP126 scenario in the 2070s decreased to varying degrees.The total area of the suitable habitats and low suitable habitats decreased 72288 km^(2).Compared with the distribution area of the suitable habitats under the current climate conditions,the suitable habitat area of A.luridus under the SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios in the 2050s increased to varying degrees.The total area of the suitable habitats and low suitable habitats expanded to 541766 km^(2)(accounting for 21.07%of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau)under the SSP370 scenario in the 2050s.Compared with the average altitude of the suitable habitats under the current climate conditions,the average altitude of the suitable habitats of A.tanguticus under four future climate scenarios decreased,and the average altitude was between 3700-3836 m.Compared with the average altitude of the suitable habitats under the conditions,the average altitude of the suitable habitats of A.luridus increased under the SSP126 scenario in the 2050s and the SSP585 scenario in the 2070s.
作者
胡华伟
魏彦强
王文颖
刘艳方
白丽丽
德却拉姆
HU Hua-wei;WEI Yan-qiang;WANG Wen-ying;LIU Yan-fang;BAI Li-li;DEQUE La-mu(College of Geosciences,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China;Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province,Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Formation Mechanism and Comprehensive Utilization in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,College of Life Sciences,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期182-189,共8页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0502)
中国科学院A类战略性先导计划专项项目(XDA19040502)
中国科学院-青海省人民政府2020年三江源国家公园联合研究专项项目(LHZX-2020-08)
2021年第一批中央林草生态保护恢复资金自然资源调查监测项目(QHXH-2021-017)。
关键词
气候变化
山若
铃铛子
最大熵模型
SSP情景
climate change
Anisodus tanguticus
Anisodus luridus
maximum entropy model
SSP scenario
