摘要
冷战结束后,美日韩三边合作针对的主要对象一直是“朝核威胁”。然而,拜登入主白宫后,三边合作开始出现“牵制中国”的转向,即主要目标从应对“朝核威胁”向应对“中国挑战”发生转移:三国干预中国台湾和南海问题的态度逐渐公开化,组建针对中国的经济和科技同盟的意愿日益提升,在“Quad+”框架下开展务实合作的态势增强,三国各自出台的“印太战略”也呈现一定程度的“合流”。三边合作之所以会转向“牵制中国”,美国外交议程重设和战略手段调整固然是主要驱动力,但日韩国内政治变化也在其间发挥了重要作用。未来在拜登政府不断充实其“印太战略”的背景下,美日韩三方联合“牵制中国”的态势可能继续维持甚至有所强化,但鉴于韩国内部共识不足、日韩关系短板依旧、半岛局势恶化倒退和“印太经济框架”内容华而不实等因素的制约,三边合作要彻底向“牵制中国”方向调整不会成功。因此,中国应以沟通为核心要义,减少美国对华战略误判,凝聚和改善中日韩关系,走出一条与美日韩三边合作兼容的共存之道。
Since the post-Cold War era,the main target of the U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation has always been the"North Korean nuclear threat".However,after Biden was elected as the U.S.president,the trilateral cooperation began to"contain China",that is,its trend began to shift from confronting the"North Korea nuclear threat"to responding to the"China challenge":the attitudes of the U.S.,Japan,and South Korea's intervention in Taiwan and the South China Sea issues gradually became public,the willingness to form economic and technological alliances against China grew,the practical cooperation under the"Quad+"framework increased,and the Indo-Pacific strategies of the three countries also demonstrate a certain degree of convergence.The reasons for"containing China"include the U.S.diplomatic agenda resetting and strategic means adjustment,as well as the domestic political changes and policy adjustment in Japan and ROK.In the near future,under the context of the Biden Administration's continuous enrichment of the"Indo-Pacific strategy",the trend of"containing China"in the U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation may continue to be maintained or even strengthened.However,constrained by factors such as lacking consensus in ROK,the Japan-ROK contradictions,the deadlock in the Korean peninsula,and vacuousness of the"Indo-Pacific Economic Framework",the trilateral cooperation will not succeed in"containing China".Therefore,China should take communication as its priority,reduce the US strategic misjudgment and improve China-Japan-ROK relations,so as to find a path of coexistence with the trilateral cooperation.
出处
《东北亚论坛》
北大核心
2023年第3期52-64,127,共14页
Northeast Asia Forum
基金
国家社科基金青年项目(20CGJ033)。
关键词
美日韩三边合作
拜登政府
“印太战略”
朝核威胁
牵制中国
U.S-Jpan-ROK Tnlateral Copetation
the Biden AdintsratioiIndo-Paifie Scrategy
North Korean Nuclear Thea
Comaiming China
