摘要
本文综合广西经济发展新形势、电力行业融合发展新形势、电力市场化建设与能源消费革命新形势,预测“十四五”及中长期广西负荷特性指标关键影响因素变化趋势。本文提出了“基准曲线+指标修正”法对“十四五”及中长期广西负荷特性指标与负荷特性曲线进行预测。建立由关键影响因素指标到负荷特性指标的定量化预测模型,并利用广西历史统计数据进行验证分析。由预测得到的负荷特性指标构成约束条件,构建由典型历史负荷特性曲线得到预测负荷曲线的曲线修正方法。
Based on the new situations of economic development,integrated development of electric power industry,electricity marketization construction and energy consumption revolution in Guangxi,the change trends of the key influencing factors of load characteristic indexes in Guangxi in“14th Five Year Plan”and medium to long term are predicted in this paper.A“reference curve+index correction”method to predict the load characteristic index and load characteristic curves in Guangxi in“14th Five Year Plan”and medium to long term is proposed in this paper.A quantitative prediction model from key influencing factor indexes to load characteristic indexes is established,which is verified and analyzed using historical statistical data in Guangxi.Using constraints formed based on the predicted load characteristic indexes,a curve correction method for obtaining predicted load curves from typical historical load characteristic curves is constructed.
作者
郭华
李波
罗超
汪桥
陈凌云
李悝
GUO Hua;LI Bo;LUO Chao;WANG Qiao;CHEN Lingyun;LI Li(Planning Research Centre of Guangxi Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangxi Nanning 530023,China;CPECC Central Southern China Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Hubei Wuhan 430071,China)
出处
《广西电力》
2022年第5期37-43,共7页
Guangxi Electric Power
关键词
发展新形势
负荷特性指标
影响因素
回归模型
指标修正
new development situation
load characteristic index
influence factor
regression model
index correction
