摘要
为探讨不同政策以及组合政策对海洋强国建设成效的影响,从生育、科技、经济、环境、教育等方面入手设计了3类16种政策情形,并构建了海洋强国建设的系统动力学模型进行政策模拟。研究表明,在延续当前的政策模式下,中国海洋强国建设水平能够不断提高,其中经济实力和生态治理板块的指标提升幅度最大。单个政策情形下,生育政策无法促进海洋强国建设水平的提高,经济政策与教育政策只能促进部分指标的提升,科技政策对各板块指标的前期促进效果明显,后期被教育政策超越。组合政策情形下,若考虑经济实力、科技竞争力以及资源利用效率的提升,宜选择科技与教育的政策组合;在考虑生态治理效果以及海域管理效果时,更宜选择环境与教育的政策组合;如果需要考虑快速实现对海域开发利用的需求,则选择经济与教育的政策组合;教育政策在实现不同海洋强国建设目标的过程中都具有重要作用。
To explore the impact of different policies and combined policies on the construction effect of maritime power,this paper designs three types of 16 policy situations from the aspects of fertility,science and technology,economy,environment and education.Then a system dynamics model for the construction of maritime power is constructed to simulate the policy.The results shows that under the current policy model the construction level of China's marine power can be con-tinuously improved and that both indicators of economic strength and ecological governance have the largest increase.In the case of a single policy.fertility policy cannot improve the construction level of marine power while economic policy or education policy can only promote the improvement of some indicators.Science and technology policy has a significant effect on early promotion of indicators in each sector and is surpassed by education policy in the later period.In the case of combined policies,if economic strength.technological competitiveness and resource utilization efficiency are concerned,then policy combination of science and technology and education should be selected.It is better to choose policy combination of environment and education when considering the effect of ecological governance and sea area management.For rapid development and utilization of sea areas the policy mix of economy and education should be selected.Finally,education policy plays an important role in achieving different goals of the marine power construction.
作者
杜军
路伟
鄢波
DU Jun;LU Wei;YAN Bol(Management School of Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 524088,China;Guangdong Coastal Economic Belt Development Research Institute,Zhanjiang 524088,China)
出处
《科技导报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第7期127-144,共18页
Science & Technology Review
基金
广东省教育科学“十三五”规划高校哲学社会科学专项(2019GXJK082)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD100,22&ZD126)
广东省教育科学规划高等教育专项(2021GXJK063)
广东省教育厅高等学校科研(特色创新)项目(2022WTSCX035)。
关键词
海洋强国建设
系统动力学
政策模拟
marine power construction
system dynamics
policy simulation
