摘要
人口是经济活动中最基础、最活跃的生产要素,其结构特征在产业发展中扮演着重要角色。在分析人口结构、居民消费需求以及产业升级三者关系的基础上,基于全国30个省份的面板数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明,人口结构变动对产业结构调整产生显著的影响,其中老龄化程度的加深、新型城镇化率的提升对产业升级的促进作用最为明显;从中介效应结果看,人口结构变动可通过改变居民的消费规模、消费层级以及发展享受型消费占比对产业结构调整产生影响,并且还存在链式中介效应;人口结构变动对产业升级的直接影响与间接影响均存在区域异质性;老年抚养比、非农参与率以及新型城镇化率的提升在不同分位数下对产业升级的影响具有差异。在我国人口结构变迁带来产业结构调整的契机下,要积极拉动内需,提振消费信心,加快实现“人口红利”向“人才红利”转变,进而促进产业转型升级。
Population is the most foundational and active production factor in economic activity,the structural feature of population plays an essential role in industrial development.Based on the analysis of demographic structure,residents’consumption demands and industrial upgrading,this paper conducts an empirical test depending on the panel data of 30 provinces.The results show that:The variation of demographic structure has an overall observable effect on industrial structure adjustment,and the aggravation of aging degree and the promotion of new urbanization rate have the most significant facilitating function on industrial upgrading.According to the outcomes of mediating effect,the demographic structure change can influence industrial structure adjustment by changing residents’consumption scale,consumption hierarchy and development of enjoyment-oriented consumption ratio,the outcomes contain chain mediating effect as well.In addition,regional heterogeneity exists in both direct and indirect influences that the variation of population structure acts on industrial upgrading.Elderly dependency ratio,non-agricultural participation rate and the promotion of new urbanization rate have differentiated impacts on industrial upgrading under different quantiles.On the basis of the adjustment of industrial structure brought by the change of Chinese population structure,we should actively stimulate domestic demand,boost consumer confidence,accelerate the transformation from“demographic dividend”to“talent dividend”,and promote industrial transformation and upgrading.
作者
何雄浪
李俊毅
He Xionglang;Li Junyi
出处
《区域经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第3期90-100,共11页
Regional Economic Review
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“环境约束下长江经济带城市群产业联动高质量发展研究”(21BJL045)
西南民族大学中央高校项目“长江经济带城市群产业联动与区域高质量一体化发展研究”(2022SJL04YB)。
关键词
人口结构
消费结构
产业升级
中介效应
Demographic Structure
Consumption Structure
Industrial Upgrading
Mediating Effect