摘要
气候变化威胁着全球生物多样性,评估物种脆弱性是研究气候变化对生物多样性影响的关键所在。目前多数研究主要通过物种适宜区面积变化来判断物种脆弱性,这单一维度会忽略其它因素的影响。采用多组分评估框架,将物种适宜区面积变化、生境破碎程度变化、受保护面积变化和人类干扰程度变化四个组分纳入物种总体脆弱性指数中,以中国具有较高经济和生态价值的山杏(Armeniaca sibirica)作为研究对象,评估未来(2061—2080年)三种共享社会经济路径(ssp)ssp126、ssp245、ssp585下山杏物种脆弱性。研究结果表明:未来山杏生境适宜区有向我国东北和西北方向扩张的趋势,扩张区面积明显大于消失区,这种差异化程度依赖于社会发展路径情景;未来适宜区内的保护区面积将由当前6.50×10^(4)km^(2)增加到1.10×10^(5)km^(2)(三种气候变化情景下的平均值),未来适宜生境破碎化程度将保持稳定,生境适宜区内的人类干扰强度将下降;各组分的比较中,受保护面积变化对山杏总体脆弱性的贡献将超过山杏适宜生境面积变化和其它组分的贡献;多组分评估下山杏脆弱性指数分别为13.93、21.04、31.41,说明未来气候变化将给山杏物种带来积极的影响。相较于单个指标评估,多组分评估更全面评估了物种脆弱性,特别强调自然保护区在多组分评估中的重要性应该引起重视。研究结果能为我国山杏应对气候变化的适应性管理提供科学依据,也为更广泛尺度上研究气候变化下其它物种脆弱性提供案例支撑。
Climate change threatens global biodiversity,and assessing the vulnerability of species is the key to study the impact of climate change on biodiversity.At present,the vulnerability of species is mainly evaluated by the changes in suitable areas or habitat of species.However,this single dimension ignores the influence of other components.Here,the study adopted a multi-component assessment framework,which incorporated four components of vulnerability,including changes in suitable areas for species,habitat fragmentation,changes in protected area and human disturbance.Then,an overall species vulnerability index was built based on the average vulnerability value of the four components.Such an evaluation procedure was applied to Armeniaca sibirica under climate change,a Chinese native tree species with higher economic and ecological value,to assess the species vulnerability under three shared socio-economic pathways(ssp126,ssp245,ssp585)in late 21st century(2061-2080).The results show that A.sibirica will mainly expand toward northeast and northwest of China,and the expansion areas are significantly larger than the disappearance areas.The degree of this difference depends on the social development pathways.The protected areas in suitable habitat will increase from the current 6.50×10^(4)km^(2)to 1.10×10^(5)km^(2)across climate change scenarios.The fragmentation of the suitable habitat will remain stable.The intensity of human disturbance will decrease in the suitable habitat.Compared comprehensively,the contribution of the protected area change to the overall vulnerability will exceed the contribution of the suitable habitat area change and other components of the species.The value of overall vulnerability index is 13.93,21.04 and 31.41 for the species,which show that future climate change will have a positive impact on A.sibirica in the late 21st century.Multi-component assessment could more comprehensively assesses the vulnerability of species than that for a single indicator assessment.The results highlight the i
作者
鲁奇
李洁
刘冠
张艳如
李国庆
LU Qi;LI Jie;LIU Guan;ZHANG Yanru;LI Guoqing(College of Forestry,Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,China;State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau,Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,China;School of Life Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources,Yangling 712100,China)
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第8期3181-3191,共11页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31971488,31300407)。
关键词
生境破碎化
生境适宜性
人类干扰
受保护面积
物种脆弱性
habitat fragmentation
habitat suitability
human disturbance
protected area
species vulnerability
