摘要
目的 分析2009-2020年北京市通州区手足口病时空分布特征,为手足口病防制工作提供依据。方法 收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统中2009-2020年北京市通州区手足口病报告病例数,描述其时间、地区及人群分布特征,计算年度变化百分比(APC)。对发病情况进行时空特征分析,运用GeoDa1.18.0软件分析全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关Moran’s I系数,运用SaTScan 10.0.2软件进行时空聚集性扫描分析。结果 2009-2020年北京市通州区共报告手足口病病例35269例,年均报告发病率为227.11/10万,报告发病率呈逐年下降趋势(APC=-23.24%,t=-3.12,P<0.01)。各乡镇报告发病率居前3位的分别为梨园镇(351.50/10万)、马驹桥镇(339.84/10万)和台湖镇(282.72/10万)。2009-2012年、2016-2018年手足口病报告发病率呈现显著的空间正相关(P<0.05),局部空间自相关显示有1个高-高聚集区为台湖镇(P<0.05),有1个低-低聚集区为漷县镇(P<0.05),未发现有统计学意义的高-低离散区和低-高离散区。时空扫描共探测到2个聚集区,一类聚集区覆盖马驹桥镇、台湖镇、于家务回族乡、梨园镇、张家湾镇5个乡镇;二类聚集区覆盖宋庄镇、潞城镇、永顺镇3个乡镇。结论 2009-2020年北京市通州区手足口病发病在空间和时间上存在聚集性,聚集区域在北京市通州区西部乡镇。应关注高发地区和重点人群,制订有针对性防控措施。
Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal clustering distribution of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Tongzhou district from 2009 to 2020,so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods The cases of HFMD in Tongzhou district from 2009 to 2020 were collected from the Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System,and distribution characteristics of time,region and population were described,and calculate annual percentage change(APC),and analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of the incidence,and the global autocorrelation and local autocorrelation analyses were conducted by using software GeoDa1.18.0,and spatial-temporal scan was conducted by using software SaTScan 10.0.2.Results From 2009 to 2020,a total of 35269 cases of HFMD were reported in Tongzhou district,and the annual incidence was 227.11/10^(5),and the annual incidence showed a sharp downward trend from 2009 to 2020(APC=-23.24%,t value=-3.12,P0.01).The top 3 towns with reported incidence were Liyuan town(351.50/10^(5)),Majuqiao town(339.84/10^(5))and Taihu town(282.72/10^(5)).The reported incidence of HFMD from 2009 to 2012,2016 to 2018 had a positive spatial correlation(P<0.05),and the local spatial autocorrelation showed that there was a high-high clustering area in Taihu town(P<0.05),and there was a low-low aggregation area in Huoxian town(P<0.05).There appeared 2 gathering areas were detected by the spatiotemporal scanning,and the first-class gathering area covered 5 towns including Majuqiao town,Taihu town,Yujiawuhuizu town,Liyuan town and Zhangjiawang town,and the second-class gathering area covered 3 towns including Songzhuang town,Lucheng town and Yongshun town.Conclusion From 2009 to 2020,the incidence of HFMD in Tongzhou district was a certain clustering in temporal-spatial,and the clustering area was in the western villages and towns of Tongzhou district in Beijing city.It is should be targeted in high-incidence areas and population to develope targeted prevention and control m
作者
苏彦萍
孙晓伟
张国峰
SU Yan-ping;SUN Xiao-wei;ZHANG Guo-feng(Office of Big Data,Tongzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Administrative Office,Tongzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention)
出处
《预防医学论坛》
2023年第3期203-207,共5页
Preventive Medicine Tribune
关键词
手足口病
报告发病率
全局自相关
局部自相关
时空聚集
HFMD
Reported incidence
Global autocorrelation
Local autocorrelation
Spatio-temporal clustering
