摘要
目的 了解山东省烟台市2015-2021年手足口病(HFMD)发病的季节特征,并进一步探索新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情暴发后的不同防控时期内HFMD季节特征的变化情况。方法 运用描述性统计方法,了解2015-2021年山东省烟台市HFMD的季节趋势。计算该期间HFMD的季节指数(SI),分析烟台市HFMD的流行季。运用集中度法了解HFMD发病季节性的强弱。运用圆形分布法了解HFMD的发病高峰日及发病高峰期。结果 2015-2021年烟台市HFMD的平均发病率为45.42/10万,其中2015年发病率最高,为71.36/10万;2020年(新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情应急响应期)发病率最低,为10.95/10万。2021烟台市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情进入低流行阶段,HFMD发病率有所回升,但较往年有明显降低,为17.57/10万。SI显示,2015-2019年HFMD的流行季为5-8月,6月SI最高(为329.23%)。2015-2021年,HFMD的流行季为5-9月,6月SI最高(为282.15%)。2015-2021年,HFMD发病的集中度M=0.65,2016年最高为0.72,2021年最低为0.49。圆形分布法结果显示,2015-2021年HFMD发病高峰日为8月1日,发病高峰期为6月6日-9月26日,平均角α=210.3458°,在第三象限,角离差为55.3228°,经雷氏(Rayleigh)检验,Z=8 812.7975>Z0.05(2.9957),P<0.01,平均角存在。结论 2015-2021年山东省烟台市HFMD发病的流行季为5-9月,主要呈单峰分布,季节性较强有明显的周期性。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情暴发后,2020年超常规应急防控期间,消除了HFMD的常规季节高峰,压低了流行曲线;2021年随着新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情进入低流行阶段,HFMD流行有回归常规季节特征的趋势。
Objective To understand the seasonal characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Yantai city,Shandong province from 2015 to 2021,and further explore the changes in the seasonal characteristics of HFMD after the outbreak of the COVID-19.Methods Descriptive statistics were used to understand the seasonal trends of HFMD in Yantai city,Shandong province from 2015-2021.The seasonal index(SI)of HFMD during the period was calculated to analyze the epidemic season of HFMD in Yantai city.The concentration degree method was used to understand the strength of the seasonality of HFMD incidence.The round distribution method was used to understand the peak day and peak period of HFMD.Results From 2015 to 2021,the average incidence of HFMD in Yantai city was 45.42/10^(5),of which the highest incidence was 71.36/10^(5) in 2015,and the lowest incidence was 10.95/10^(5) in 2020(the emergency response period of COVID-19 epidemic).In 2021,the COVID-19 in Yantai city entered a low epidemic stage,and the incidence of hand foot mouth disease rebounded,but it was significantly lower than that in previous years,reaching 175.7 million yuan.SI showed that the epidemic season of HFMD in 2015-2019 was May-August,the highest SI was 329.23%.In 2015 to 2021,the epidemic season of HFMD was May-September,the highest SI was 282.15%.From 2015 to 2021,the concentration of HFMD incidence M=0.65,the highest was 0.72 in 2016,the lowest was 0.49 in 2021.The results of circular distribution method showed that the peak day of HFMD incidence in 2015-2021 was August 1,and the peak period of HFMD incidence was June 6-September 26,with the average angle α=210.3458°,in the third quadrant,the angular deviation was 55.3228°.According to Rayleigh test,Z=8812.7975Z_(0.05)=2.9957,P<0.01,the average angle exists.Conclusion From 2015 to 2021,the epidemic season of HFMD in Yantai city was May to September,mainly in a single peak distribution,with strong seasonality and obvious periodicity.After the outbreak of the COVID-19,the conventional seasonal peak
作者
翁启明
牟晓东
李春辉
赵颖珠
李宁
郭培军
WENG Qi-ming;MU Xiao-dong;LI Chun-hui;ZHAO Ying-zhu;LI Ning;GUO Pei-jun(School of Public Health and Management,Binzhou Medical College,Binzhou,Shandong 26400,China;Yantai City Center for Disease Control and Prevention)
出处
《预防医学论坛》
2023年第3期185-189,共5页
Preventive Medicine Tribune
基金
山东省烟台市科技创新发展计划(2020YJGG009)。
关键词
手足口病
疾病季节特征
新型冠状病毒感染
烟台市
Hand foot mouth disease
Seasonal characteristics of disease
COVID-19
Yantai city
