摘要
青藏高原是海-陆-气相互作用的敏感区域,其降水对当地乃至亚洲水循环起着重要作用,但目前对该区域在21世纪的降水时空演变规律仍认识不足。本文以第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的25个气候模式模拟数据为基准,结合观测数据评估了各模式对青藏高原历史时期(1961-2014年)降水变化的模拟能力,发现多模式集合平均模拟效果优于多数单模式。由多模式集合平均分析了SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5四种情景下青藏高原2015-2099年降水时空特征,发现未来青藏高原年降水量在时间上呈现增加趋势,在空间上呈现西北向东南递增的特征。相对于参考时段(1995-2014年),降水增幅在近期(2020-2039年)呈现北正南负的特征,高值区分布在藏北高原中西部和昆仑山区,而在21世纪中期(2040-2059年)和末期(2080-2099年)降水增幅南北相反的特征消失,其高值区分布在南部地区,且排放情景越高,增幅越大,空间差异也越大。到21世纪末,青藏高原年降水量在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下较参考时段分别增加约65 mm、94 mm、146 mm和180 mm,同时400 mm和800 mm等降水量线将向北移动,预示着未来青藏高原干旱区面积将减小,湿润区面积将增大,且排放情景越高,湿润区面积增加越大。
The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)is a sensitive area of the land-sea-air interaction,its precipitation changes play a crucial role in the local and Asian water cycle.However,there is not enough knowledge of the Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation changes over the QXP during the 21st century so far.In this study,based on 25 Earth-Climate system models’simulation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),the ability of 25 CMIP6 models to simulate precipitation changes was analyzed and compared with the precipitation data measured at 76 meteorological stations over the QXP during the period of 1961-2014.It was found that the multi-model ensemble mean showed a better skill than most of single models in simulating precipitation over the QXP.Therefore,we analyzed the Spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation changes through the multi-model ensemble mean under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenario over the QXP during the period of 2015-2099.It was found that the annual precipitation will demonstrate a significant increase tendency with obvious inter-decadal fluctuations in the future over the QXP.Spatially,the precipitation changes showed a feature of increasing from northwest to southeast,and the increase of precipitation is more significant for the high emission scenario.Compared with the baseline period of 1995-2014,the increase in precipitation showed a characteristic of positive north and negative south in the near-term(2020-2039),and the largest increase areas are distributed in the central and western of the Northern Tibetan Plateau and Kunlun Mountains.The opposite characteristics of precipitation change will disappear in the mid-term(2040-2059)and the long-term(2080-2099),and the increasing trend was showed in the north and south.The largest increase areas of precipitation are distributed in the southern region,and the smallest increase areas of precipitation are distributed in the Qaidam Basin and the Pamirs.The increase of precipitation will be more signific
作者
陈荣
段克勤
尚溦
石培宏
孟雅丽
CHEN Rong;DUAN Keqin;SHANG Wei;SHI Peihong;MENG Yali(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,Shaanxi,China)
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期294-304,共11页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0201)
国家自然科学基金项目(41571062,41901071)
中央高校基本科研业务费(GK202003066)。
关键词
青藏高原
降水
CMIP6
SSP情景
时空特征
Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP)
precipitation
CMIP6
SSP scenario
spatio-temporal variation
