摘要
我国已成为人口老龄化程度较高,老龄化速度最快的国家,对人口老龄化所带来的经济效应进行深入研究,有助于经济社会应对“未富先老”的全面冲击。本文从企业债务融资视角,探究地区人口老龄化对微观企业融资决策的影响。研究发现,地区人口老龄化程度的加深会显著降低企业的债务融资水平,这一结论在采用计划生育强度作为工具变量检验之后依然存在。机制分析表明,地区人口老龄化主要通过加剧融资约束和增加经营风险两个渠道降低企业债务融资水平。异质性分析表明,人口老龄化对企业债务融资的影响在非国有企业、中小型企业、传统行业、资本和劳动密集型行业的样本中更为明显。进一步地,人口老龄化在引致金融资源供给冲击的同时,也会加剧金融资源错配,体现在地区人口老龄化显著提升了企业的融资不足水平,且对企业债务融资的负面影响在生产率较高的企业中更为明显。本文的研究有助于从微观企业债务融资决策的视角理解人口老龄化的经济效应,并为国家实施积极的人口老龄化战略提供有益参考。
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China,by the end of 2021,the proportion of people aged 65 and above in China had reached 14.2%,which is far higher than the world average(9.54%)and exceeds the level that represents moderate aging of a society(14%).The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)stated that implementing the“national strategy of actively responding to population aging”is necessary to promote high-quality development.A superior financing environment and sufficient credit resources are crucial to maintain companies'operations and to realize economic transformation and upgrading.Companies'debt financing decisions are the micro embodiment of the financing environment and a frequent focus of academic research.Since MM theory was introduced,the literature on corporate financing decisions has expanded,and the trade-off and pecking order financing theories have been developed.These theories discuss the optimal capital structure for companies and emphasize the advantages of debt financing,such as a reduced tax burden and its restraining effect on overinvestment.Debt financing decisions are related to companies'asset allocations,which are affected by many internal and external factors.Different from the literature,we introduce regional population structure to study the impact of population aging on corporate debt financing decisions and the efficiency of financial resource allocation.Using 2007-2019 data on Chinese listed companies,we empirically analyze the impact of regional population aging on companies'financing decisions.The results show that deepening regional population aging significantly reduces companies'debt financing.After using previous family planning intensity as an instrumental variable to address endogeneity concerns and performing a series of robustness tests,the conclusion holds.The mechanism analysis shows that regional population aging reduces corporate debt financing through two channels:intensifying financing constraints and i
作者
陈熠辉
蔡庆丰
王斯琪
CHEN Yihui;CAI Qingfeng;WANG Siqi(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University;School of Economics,Xiamen University;China Construction Bank)
出处
《金融研究》
北大核心
2023年第2期40-59,共20页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社科基金后期资助项目“区域竞争下的地方政策博弈与企业决策研究(22FJYB015)”
长沙市自然科学基金项目“地方人才竞争、人力资本积累与企业创新发展研究:基于城市人才引进政策效果评估的视角(kq2208046)”的资助。
关键词
人口老龄化
企业债务融资
金融资源错配
工具变量法
Population Aging
Corporate Debt Financing
Financial Resource Mismatch
Instrumental Variable Method
