摘要
经济政策带来的不确定性感知是企业面临的最大挑战之一,而数字化转型有助于降低企业的经济政策不确定性感知。为了验证企业数字化转型和经济政策不确定性感知之间的关系,本文使用2012-2020年中国A股制造业上市公司数据,采用文本分析法构造了企业层面的经济政策不确定性感知和数字化转型指标。结果表明,制造业企业的数字化转型显著降低了企业的经济政策不确定性感知。企业数字化转型水平每提高1个标准差,经济政策不确定性感知会降低3.86%。在使用了更换度量指标、构建Bartik工具变量法和利用外生冲击进行合成双重差分检验(SDID)等多种缓解内生性问题的方法后,本文的主要结论依然成立。渠道分析表明,企业数字化转型通过减少企业面临的信息不对称和提高企业的信息处理能力,减少了经济政策不确定性感知。本文在数字经济背景下提供了一种降低经济政策不确定性感知的新思路,并对“稳预期”和发展数字经济提供了一定的政策参考。
Perceived economic policy uncertainty,defined as the subjective perception of consumers,managers,or other decision makers that economic policy is likely to change,is one of the greatest challenges faced by enterprises.Especially in recent years,the international political and economic spheres have been rife with uncertainty because of the impact of COVID-19,international trade friction,and regional conflicts,further increasing economic policy uncertainty.Therefore,economists are increasingly paying attention to economic policy uncertainty.The literature shows that in general,such uncertainty discourages business investment,reduces hiring and trade,lowers enterprises'output,and may impede long-term economic growth.Therefore,it is important to study ways to reduce enterprises'perception of economic policy uncertainty.The arrival of the digital economy provides a solution to this dilemma.In the digital economy,enterprises transform their production and operation systems,management models,and core business processes with the help of digital technologies,creating disruptive innovations and changes.This process is called“digital transformation.”We argue that through digital transformation and by introducing digital technologies such as artificial intelligence,big data,and cloud computing,enterprises can,to some extent,alleviate the deficiencies arising from their limited access to information and limited ability to process information,thus reducing their perception of economic policy uncertainty.We use 2012-2020 data on Chinese A-share listed manufacturing companies and find that companies'digital transformations effectively reduce their perception of economic policy uncertainty.The financial data are from the CSMAR database.We use textual analysis to extract words related to economic policy and uncertainty from the annual reports of the listed companies to construct firm-level economic policy uncertainty(FEPU)and firm-level indicators of digital transformation.In the baseline regression,the OLS estimates suggest t
作者
方明月
聂辉华
阮睿
沈昕毅
FANG Mingyue;NIE Huihua;RUAN Rui;SHEN Xinyi(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University;School of Economics,Renmin University of China;Center for China Fiscal Development,Central University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《金融研究》
北大核心
2023年第2期21-39,共19页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(72002213)和面上项目(72273144)
北京市社科基金一般项目(20JJB006)
教育部重大课题(18JZD048)的资助。
关键词
经济政策不确定性
数字化转型
数字经济
信息化
Economic Policy Uncertainty
Digital Transformation
Digital Economy
Informatization
