摘要
利用多源气象资料,对台风“温比亚”引发豫东降水的极端性特征及极端降水产生机制进行分析,提炼预报着眼点。此次降水是河南继驻马店“75·8”暴雨之后的又一次罕见特大暴雨,表现为过程雨量极大、破极值站数最多、降水强度极大、强降水时段集中的特征。结果表明:(1)高低空系统耦合为特大暴雨的发生发展创造了良好的环境条件,极端降水的产生主要受台风北侧螺旋云系影响,并有持续不断的强回波单体在同一个地点移动,冷空气与台风环流相互作用是重要的预报着眼点,重点分析台风和副热带高压的相对运动及西风带对台风的引导作用。(2)河南东部水汽输送条件一直处于较好的状态,这是降水维持较长时间的重要因素,急流中心区域和强度的变化对降水量多少有指示意义。(3)豫东地区对流不稳定和斜压不稳定均比较明显,低层MPV1<0、MPV2>0的区域与强降水落区有较好的对应关系。(4)强辐合中心位于台风中心的北侧,降水强度与辐合强度有较好的对应关系,螺旋度大值区分布对强降水的分布区域有较好的指示意义。
Based on the multi-source meteorological data,this paper analyzed the extreme characteristics and the mechanism of extreme precipitation in Eastern Henan caused by typhoon“Rumbia”.The precipitation is another rare rainstorm in Henan after the“75·8”rainstorm in Zhumadian,which is characterized by the maximum process rainfall,the maximum number of breaking extreme stations,the maximum rainfall intensity,and the concentration of heavy rainfall period.The results show that:(1)The coupling of high and low altitude systems provides favorable environmental conditions for the development of heavy rain.The generation of extreme precipitation is mainly affected by the spiral cloud system on the north side of the typhoon,and continuous strong echo cells are moving in the same place.The interaction between cold air and typhoon circulation is an important prediction focus.The relative motion of typhoons,subtropical high,and the guiding effect of westerly belts on typhoons are mainly analyzed.(2)The water vapor transport condition in the east of Henan province has been in an ideal state,which is an important factor for the precipitation to maintain a long time.The change of the jet center area and intensity have an indicative significance for the amount of precipitation.(3)The convective and baroclinic instability are evident in the east of Henan province.The areas with MPV1<0 and MPV2>0 in the lower layer correspond well with the regions with strong rainfall.(4)The intense convergence center is located in the north of the typhoon center,and there is a good correspondence between the precipitation intensity and the convergence intensity.The distribution of the significant value area of helicity indicates the distribution area of the heavy precipitation.
作者
康邵钧
康庄
朱蒙
KANG Shaojun;KANG Zhuang;ZHU Meng(Shangqiu Meteorological Bureau,Shangqiu 476000,China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2023年第2期36-43,共8页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-070)。
关键词
台风
特大暴雨
低空急流
湿位涡
螺旋度
typhoon
extreme precipitation
low-level jet
moist potential vorticity
helicity
