摘要
人口老龄化、生育率下降等因素导致我国很多城市养老基金面临不同程度的支付风险。为了精准度量养老基金支付风险的大小,对基金的运行进行有效监管,本文假定基金收入与支出相依条件下借助Copula函数对收入账户与支出账户的依存关系进行分析,建立回归模型,在此基础上引用金融风险测度的方法,提出新的一定置信度下的两种养老金账户支付风险测度方法,运用我国1997—2020年的相关经济指标数据对不同置信水平的2022—2040年城镇职工基本养老保险基金的支付风险进行了测算并提出了相应的对策。
Due to the impacts of the aging of population, the decline of fertility and other factors, the urban pension funds in China’s many cities are facing different degrees of payment risks. In order to accurately measure the payment risks of pension funds and effectively supervise the operation of funds, this paper makes an analysis of the dependent relationship between the income accounts and expenditure accounts with the help of Copula function under the assumption that the income and the expenditure of the funds are dependent, then it establishes a regression model. On this basis, it employs the financial risk measurement method and proposes two new methods to measure the pension account payment risks with a certain degree of confidence. Finally, it makes use of the relevant economic index data of China from 1997 to 2020 to measure the payment risk of the basic old-age insurance account of urban employees from 2022 to 2040 with different degrees of confidence, and it also puts forward the corresponding countermeasures.
作者
孙荣
SUN Rong(Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)
出处
《江西财经大学学报》
北大核心
2023年第1期65-75,共11页
Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“弹性延迟退休城镇职工基本养老保险账户的长期精算平衡研究”(19BTJ020)。
关键词
城镇职工
基本养老保险基金
支付风险
风险测度
urban employees
basic old-age insurance fund
payment risk
risk measurement
