摘要
2022年尽管受到新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、国际禽流感暴发等的不利影响,中国禽肉产能仍持续高位运行,产量小幅增加;从全年来看,消费量小幅增加;贸易方面,进口量减额增,出口量额双增;饲料价格再创新高,养殖成本上涨,叠加需求拉动效应,鸡肉价格涨势明显,整体处于历史高位水平。由于产业面临高成本压力、禽流感疫情冲击以及供应链等诸多不确定性的挑战,预计2023年国内肉禽市场供需双增,但增幅有限,价格仍将维持高位运行。基于此,行业需科学实施饲料替代方案,降低养殖成本,提高饲养效率,增加养殖效益;科学应对后疫情时代,多渠道释放消费潜力,提振禽肉消费需求;大力推进国有肉鸡品种商业化、产业化,提升市场占有率;加强市场监测预警,合理引导产业发展。
In 2022,despite the adverse effects of the new COVID-19 pandemic,the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,and the outbreak of avian influenza,China's poultry production capacity continued to run at a high level,with a slight increase in production.From the perspective of the whole year,consumption increased slightly;in terms of trade,the volume of imports decreased,the value of imports increased,both the volume and the value of exports increased;the feed price hit a new high,the breeding cost rose,and the price of broilers rose significantly with a historical high level under the demand pulling effect.The industry is facing many uncertain challenges such as high-cost pressure,avian influenza epidemic impact and supply chain.It was expected that the supply and demand of the domestic broiler market will increase in 2023,but the range is limited,and the price will remain high.Based on this,the industry needs to scientifically implement feed alternatives,reduce breeding costs,improve breeding efficiency,and increase breeding benefit;scientifically respond to the post-epidemic era,release consumption potential through multiple channels,and boost poultry meat consumption demand;vigorously promote the commercialization and industrialization of state-owned broiler breeds,and increase market share;strengthen market monitoring and early warning,and reasonably guide industrial development.
作者
张珺慧
张莉
Zhang Junhui;Zhang Li(Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Key Laboratory of Agricultural Big Data,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081)
出处
《农业展望》
2023年第2期27-32,共6页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
农业农村部农产品市场监测预警项目
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“国际农业科技情报研究”(Y2021ZK07)。
关键词
禽肉
产量
价格
消费
贸易
展望
poultry
production
price
consumption
trade
outlook
