摘要
日本作为较早实施非常规货币政策的主要经济体,在长期的经济衰退背景下进行了最激进的货币政策尝试,研究货币政策不确定性对日本货币政策有效性的影响对后疫情时期全球的货币政策调整策略具有重要借鉴意义。基于SE-IVAR模型对日本货币政策不确定性不同水平下货币政策对宏观经济的调控作用的实证分析表明:(1)日本货币政策不确定性对日本货币政策有效性在短期内存在显著的影响效应,货币政策不确定性的上升会削弱货币政策调控宏观经济的效果;(2)日本货币政策不确定性处于高区制时,货币政策对产出、核心通胀、消费和长期利率的刺激作用在短期内均有不同程度的降低,在长期内仅对经济增长的抑制作用更明显;(3)日本在2001年后实施的非常规货币政策对产出的拉动效果要优于常规货币政策的效果,但非常规货币政策受货币政策不确定性的影响程度要高于常规货币政策;(4)日本常规货币政策和非常规货币政策对缓解核心通胀紧缩的效果仅局限于短期,难以在长期内实现核心通胀的温和增长。
As a major economy that implemented unconventional monetary policy earlier,Japan has attempted the most radical monetary policy in the long recession.So studying the effectiveness of its monetary policy is of great significance to the global monetary policy adjustment strategy in the post-pandemic period.This paper analyzes the impact of Japanese monetary policy on macroeconomy under different levels of monetary policy uncertainty based on SE-IVAR model with monthly data from 1987 to 2021.The empirical analysis shows that:(1)Japan’s monetary policy uncertainty has a significant effect on the effectiveness of Japan’s monetary policy in short term,and the increase of monetary policy uncertainty will weaken the effect of monetary policy.(2)When the monetary policy uncertainty is high,the stimulus to output,core inflation,consumption and long-term interest rates decreases in the short term,and has a inhibitory effect on economic growth in the long term.(3)The unconventional monetary policy implemented after 2001 has a better effect on output than the conventional monetary policy,and the unconventional monetary policy is more affected by the monetary policy uncertainty than the conventional monetary policy.(4)Fighting against the deflation through conventional and unconventional monetary policy works only in the short term,and it is difficult to achieve moderate growth of core inflation in the long run.
作者
王金明
杨祚
WANG Jinming;YANG Zuo(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin,130012,China;School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin,130012,China)
出处
《现代日本经济》
北大核心
2023年第2期27-38,共12页
Contemporary Economy OF Japan
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“经济下行压力下的稳增长防滞胀研究”(22AJL016)。
