摘要
暴雨洪水同频率假定是否成立和暴雨洪水遭遇概率分布是中小流域设计洪水计算的依据,为检验其合理性,采用鉴江上游曹江流域典型强降水流域1967—2013年逐时暴雨洪水观测资料,分析了华南中小流域最大面雨量R和对应场次最大洪峰流量Q的边缘分布和联合分布的遭遇概率,并推算其设计重现水平。研究结果表明:暴雨和洪水同频遭遇概率较小;对于特定设计频率,洪峰流量与流域面雨量的遭遇概率随流域面雨量增大而增大;流域面雨量和洪峰流量的遭遇条件概率显示存在着多种防洪风险管理选择;相对于“或”联合重现期和“且”重现期,二次重现期更准确地反映R-Q组合的风险率。
Whether the assumption of the same frequency of storm and flood is true or not and the probability distribution of encountering the storm and flood are the basis for the design flood calculation of small and medium-sized basins.To validate the rationality,based on the hourly rainstorm and flood observation data from 1967 to 2013 in the typical heavy rainfall basin of Caojiang River in the upper reaches of Jianjiang River,this paper firstly analyzes the marginal distribution of the maximum surface rainfall and the maximum flood peak discharge,then analyzes the encounter probability of the joint distribution of rainstorm and flood peak,and calculates the design recurrence level.The main conclusions are as follows:the probability of the same frequency of rainstorm and flood is small in this basin;for a specific design frequency,the encounter probability of flood peak discharge and watershed surface rainfall increases with the increment of watershed surface rainfall;the encounter probabilities of rainfall and flood peak flow show that there are many management options for flood risk;compared with the‘OR’return period and the‘AND’return period,the secondary return period more accurately reflects the risk rate of R-Q combination.
作者
赵玲玲
张鑫辉
刘昌明
杨兴
ZHAO Lingling;ZHANG XinHui;LIU Changming;YANG Xing(Guangzhou Institute of Geography,Guangdong Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510002,China;Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application,Guangzhou Institute of Geography,Guangdong Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510070,China;College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Anhui Traffic Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230000,China)
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期157-163,共7页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金(42271091,41977413,41771044,41501046)
广东省水利科技创新项目(2016-14)。
关键词
设计暴雨洪水
同频率假设
Kendall重现期
重现水平
中小流域
曹江流域
design storm flood
same frequency hypothesis
Kendall recurrence period
recurrence level
small and medium-sized basin
Caojiang Watershed
