摘要
基于行为经济学理论,分析了个人风险偏好对家庭生育决策的影响机制,并采用2018年中国家庭追踪调查微观数据进行了实证。研究发现,个人风险承受度提高使家庭生育子女的可能性平均降低了18.69%。在考虑性别和城乡差异、调整风险偏好的测度方式、调整家庭生育的代理变量、解决数据和样本的选择性偏误后,结论仍具有较强稳健性。机制分析表明,经济和非经济因素对风险偏好具有调节作用,影响了家庭生育水平。在中国实行优化人口发展战略,建立和完善生育支持政策体系后,应以家庭行为倾向作为生育政策调整的依据。
Based on the theory of behavioral economics,this paper analyzed the impact mechanism of individual risk preference on family fertility decision,and used the micro data of the 2018 China Family Panel Studies to conduct an empirical research.The study found that,on average,the increase of personal risk tolerance reduced the fertility probability by 18.69%.And this conclusion was still robust based on gender and urban-rural differences,adjusting measurement of risk bias,adjusting the proxy variables of family fertility,and solving the selective bias of data and samples.Mechanism analysis revealed that economic and non-economic factors had a regulatory effect on risk preference,and affected family fertility level.After implementing the strategy of optimizing population development and improving the policy system of fertility support in China,the government should take family behavior tendency as the basis for the adjustment of fertility policy.
作者
王浩名
柳清瑞
WANG Hao-ming;LIU Qing-rui(School of Economics,Faculty of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)
出处
《山西财经大学学报》
北大核心
2023年第3期1-13,共13页
Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BRK008)。
关键词
风险偏好
生育决策
家庭收入
传统观念
夫妻博弈
risk preference
fertility decision
family income
traditional ideas
couple game
