摘要
以2000、2010和2020年3期土地利用数据为基础,采用生态系统服务价值改进的生态足迹模型核算滦河上游流域各期总体和不同地类生态承载力总量,绘制生态承载力空间分布图,分析其历史变化趋势和空间分布特征。并基于CA-Markov模型模拟流域2030年的土地利用格局,对该流域未来生态承载力进行了预测。结果表明,滦河上游流域建设用地和水域面积增长迅速,林地和草地互相转换活跃,草地转出居多,但仍是该流域主导地类。伴随着活跃的地类转换,流域生态承载力总体呈先减少、后增加的趋势。预测结果表明,2020—2030年预测该流域生态承载力将从1 844 795 ghm2增加至2 032 204 ghm2,增长了10.16%,水域对该流域生态系统承载力贡献作用十分突出。滦河上游流域生态承载力总体格局呈西北高、东南低的特征,内部单元随时间变化在空间上呈斑块聚集状。
Based on the three-phase land use data in 2000,2010 and 2020,the ecological footprint based on the ecosystem service value model was used to calculate the total amount of ecological carrying capacity of three phases and different land use types in the up⁃per reaches of Luanhe River Basin,a spatial distribution map of ecological carrying capacity was drawn,and its historical change trend and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed.Based on the CA-Markov model,the land use pattern of the basin in 2030 was stimulated,and the future ecological carrying capacity of the watershed was predicted.The results showed that the settlement and water area of the upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin grew rapidly,and the conversion of forest and grassland was active.The grass⁃land area was mostly transferred out,but it was still the dominant land class in the basin.With the active conversion of land use types,the ecological carrying capacity of the river basin generally showed a trend of“first decreasing and then increasing”.The forecast re⁃sults showed that the ecological carrying capacity of the basin was predicted to increase from 1844795 ghm2 to 2032204 ghm2 be⁃tween 2020 and 2030,an increase of 10.16%,and the cantribution of water area to the ecological carrying capacity of the basin was outstanding.The overall pattern of ecological carrying capacity in the upper reaches of Luanhe River Basin was characterized by high in the northwest and low in the southeast,and the internal units showed a trend of patch aggregation in space with time.
作者
胡星星
陈星
卢娟娟
陈霞
张其成
HU Xing-xing;CHEN Xing;LU Juan-juan;CHEN Xia;ZHANG Qi-cheng(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Weichang Manchu and Mongolian Autonomous County Branch,Chengde Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment,Chengde 068469,Hebei,China;Jiangsu Provincial Water and Soil Conservation Ecological Environment Monitoring Station,Nanjing 210012,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2023年第3期165-172,共8页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51879163)。
关键词
生态足迹
生态系统服务价值
生态承载力
时空格局
预测
ecological footprint
ecosystem service value
ecological carrying capacity
spatio-temporal pattern
prediction
