摘要
中国正处于数字经济快速发展时期,数字化是打造经济高质量发展新引擎的现实需求。同时,中国城市众多,城市之间经济增长水平存在较大差异,不同城市从数字经济获得的经济增长效应也可能不相同。区域协调发展需要保持城市间经济发展水平差异可控,因此,数字经济的经济增长效应存在怎样的城市异质性还关系到城市发展的协调问题。从集聚经济和“涓滴极化”理论出发,在理论上探讨了数字经济对经济增长的直接效应和溢出效应存在城市异质性的逻辑。基于2013—2018年中国城市面板数据,构建双重固定效应面板模型,研究发现信息基础设施、数字产业化和数字金融对城市生产率的均值回归系数显著为正。在基准模型上施加分位数约束和引入空间滞后项,构建面板分位数模型和分位数空间杜宾模型估算数字经济不同维度对城市经济增长在不同分位点处的回归系数,研究发现,宽带互联网、数字产业化和数字金融更偏向提升中小城市本地经济水平,移动通信更偏向提升大城市本地经济水平;数字产业化对经济水平的空间溢出表现为涓滴效应;信息基础设施只对大城市经济水平具有正向空间溢出,并未对中小城市经济水平产生积极的空间溢出,甚至构成阻碍作用。实证结果表明,数字经济是控制城市经济增长分异的一把“双刃剑”,需要制定合理的地方政策推动大城市和中小城市的协同发展。基于研究结论,提出推进大城市和中小城市数字经济协同发展的政策建议。
In a period of rapid development of digital economy,Chinese digital economy is to create a new engine of high-quality economic development needs.At the same time,China has a large number of cities with different level of economic growth.Cities may have different economic growth effects of digital economy.Regional coordinated development needs to keep the difference of economic development between cities controllable,so the urban heterogeneity of economic growth effect of digital economy is also related to the coordination of urban development.Based on the theory of agglomeration economy and trickle-down-polarization,this paper theoretically discusses the logic of urban heterogeneity in the direct and spillover effects of digital economy on economic growth.Theoretical analysis shows that:(1)Digital economy promotes urban economic growth through infrastructure,digital industrialization and digital finance.(2)As to the heterogeneity of local effect,because of the difference of first-mover advantage and second-mover advantage of urban construction information infrastructure and the difference of urban labor force scale,the promotion effect of digital economy on urban economic growth changes with the change of urban economic level.(3)As to the heterogeneity of spatial spillover effects,the digital economy may promote the economic growth of small-and-medium-size cities through promoting the synergy of inter-city industries,and may also make small-and-medium-size cities lose ICT-friendly industries through active and passive selection,therefore.Thus,digital economy has urban heterogeneity on the spatial spillover of economic growth through trickle-down effect or polarization effect.Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2013 to 2018,this paper constructs a dual fixed-effect panel model and finds that the mean regression coefficients of information infrastructure,digital industrialization and digital finance on urban productivity are significantly positive.Then,the quantile constraint and the spatial lag term are
作者
陈丛波
叶阿忠
CHEN Cong-bo;YE A-zhong(School of Business Administration,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China;School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
北大核心
2023年第4期48-58,共11页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“半参数门限空间滞后模型理论研究及其应用”(72073030)。
关键词
数字经济
经济增长
城市异质性
空间溢出
分位数
digital economy
economic growth
urban heterogeneity
spatial spillovers
quantile
