摘要
以景观格局视角出发借鉴PSR模型,构建基于压力—状态—响应的环鄱阳湖城市群空间冲突测度模型框架,运用空间统计、数理分析等相关方法对环鄱阳湖城市群的空间冲突强度水平、时空分异特征及演变规律进行研究。设置“生态优先”“经济优先”“规划限制”三种不同城市发展预测情景,借助斑块生成土地利用模拟模型(PLUS模型)模拟三种预测情景下的土地利用空间格局,同时分析不同情景下的城市空间冲突分布状况,并结合研究结果与城市发展现状,提出缓解城市空间冲突的优化策略与建议。结果表明:①受到空间压力、空间结构状态以及空间格局等波动变化的影响,环鄱阳湖城市群的空间冲突强度整体呈现大幅度上升趋势。②较低冲突区主要分布在研究区域西部、东部的山地,且主要位于研究区域边界地区,呈块状分布;较高冲突区零散分布于整个研究区域内的核心城市内部;低冲突区与高冲突区占比最高,且均呈片状分布在较低冲突区与较高冲突区的过渡区域。③生态优先情景下,生态结构优势明显,整体空间冲突强度最低;非生态优先情景下,建设用地扩张使得生态用地发展受到限制,空间冲突强度增加明显。④增加森林覆盖率,提升生态用地的面积,降低城市建设用地发展对周边生态、农业结构的消耗量,基底保护—廊道构建—生态用地增加是缓解空间冲突强度的优化策略。
Based on the PSR model from the perspective of landscape patterns,a spatial conflict measurement model framework based on the pressure-state-response theory was constructed,and spatial statistics,mathematical analysis,and other relevant methods were used to study the intensity level,spatiotemporal differentiation,and evolution law of spatial conflict in the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration.Three different urban development forecasting scenarios of“ecological priority”,“economic priority,”and“planning restriction”were set to simulate the spatial distribution pattern of land use and urban spatial conflict distribution in terms of the patch generation land use simulation model(PLUS).Combined with the research results and status of urban development,optimization strategies and suggestions for alleviating urban spatial conflicts are presented in this study.The results showed that:(1)The intensity of the spatial conflict in the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration significantly increased due to fluctuations in the spatial pressure,spatial structure,and spatial pattern.(2)The lower conflict zones are mainly distributed in the mountains in the west and east of the study area and are mainly located in the border areas of the study area,showing a massive distribution.The higher conflict zones are scattered in the core cities within the entire study area.The proportion of low conflict zones and high conflict zones is the highest,and both are distributed in the transitional regions of low and high conflict zones.(3)Under the ecological priority scenario,the ecological structure had obvious advantages,and the overall spatial conflict intensity was the lowest.In the non-ecological priority scenario,the expansion of the construction land limited the development of ecological land,and the intensity of spatial conflict increased significantly.(4)Increasing forest coverage,improving the area of ecological land,reducing the consumption of urban construction land in surrounding ecology and agricultural structures,and increasin
作者
陈乐平
陈竹安
CHEN Leping;CHEN Zhu´an(Faculty of Geomatics,East China University of Technology,Jiangxi Nanchang 330013,China;Key Laboratory of Mine Environ-mental Monitoring and Improving around Poyang Lake,Ministry of Natural Resources,Jiangxi Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《上海国土资源》
2023年第1期28-35,共8页
Shanghai Land & Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金(51708098、52168010)。
关键词
空间冲突
多情景预测模拟
PLUS
环鄱阳湖城市群
spatial conflict
multi-scenario prediction simulation
plus
ring poyang lake city group
