摘要
针对水文模型参数和径流模拟结果不确定性问题,选取2Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NSE)、改进的决定系数(R^(2)_(m))、相对误差(PBIAS)、Kling-Gupta效率系数(KGE)4种目标函数,对构建的滦河流域潘家口水库上游SWAT模型进行参数率定及验证,分析了不同目标函数下模型参数的敏感性差异及径流模拟的不确定性。结果表明:参数敏感性会随迭代次数增加和抽样范围变化发生改变,不同目标函数下率定的参数范围和最优值显著不同;NSE和KGE作为目标函数在各站点径流模拟中更稳健,分别表现出较高的模拟精度和较低的模拟不确定性。
Aiming at the uncertainty of hydrological model parameters and runoff simulation results,four objective functions,namely Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE),modified determination coefficient(R^(2)_(m)),relative error(PBIAS)and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient(KGE),were selected to calibrate and verify the parameters of the constructed SWAT model at the upstream of Panjiakou Reservoir in the Luanhe River Basin.The sensitivity difference of model parameters under different objective functions and the uncertainty of runoff simulation were analyzed.The results show that the parameter sensitivity will change with the increase of the number of iterations and the change of the sampling range,and the parameter range and the optimal value of the calibration are significantly different under different objective functions.As the objective function,NSE and KGE are more robust in runoff simulation at each station,showing higher simulation accuracy and lower simulation uncertainty,respectively.
作者
冯平
张立斌
李建柱
张婷
许心怡
FENG Ping;ZHANG Libin;LI Jianzhu;ZHANG Ting;XU Xinyi(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China)
出处
《水资源保护》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期17-24,69,共9页
Water Resources Protection
基金
国家自然科学基金(52079086)。
关键词
SWAT模型
径流模拟
不确定性
目标函数
参数敏感性
滦河流域
SWAT model
runoff simulation
uncertainty
objective function
parameter sensitivity
Luanhe River Basin
