摘要
上海公共交通模型始建于20世纪80年代,经历了从起步到成熟再到进一步完善的发展历程。起步阶段,为解决当时上海市民公共交通乘车难问题,构建了具有宏观客流模拟与分析功能的公共交通规划模型,适用于对公共交通网络及骨干走廊和线路的客流预测分析。成熟阶段,在既有公共交通规划模型偏重中长期宏观规划预测分析功能的基础上,开展技术改革和参数优化,形成公共交通系统模型,并作为当时上海综合交通模型体系建设的重要组成部分,满足对规划、建设、运营管理等不同层面的应用要求。完善阶段,信息化大数据在交通领域的发展为模型补充了新的数据基础,使模型在既有框架下继续优化参数和更新技术,提高模拟和预测的精度,进一步完善功能。通过对上海公共交通模型各发展阶段的回顾,总结关键技术,展望未来可能的发展方向。
The Shanghai public transportation model was developed in the 1980s.It has gone through the development process from start to maturity and further improvement.In the initial stage,to solve the accessibility problem in Shanghai,a public transportation planning model with macro passenger flow simulation and analysis function was developed,which applies to passenger flow forecasting and analysis on the public transportation network and backbone corridors.In the mature stage,based on the existing model which focuses on the macro forecasting and analysis function in the medium and long term,the developed model was updated to the public transportation system model and integrated with Shanghai's comprehensive transportation model system as an important part.Technical reform and parameter optimization were carried out to meet the application requirements of planning,construction,operation management,and other prospects.In the improvement stage,big data in public transportation can be viewed as a new database for the model,enabling the model to continue to optimize parameters and key technologies under the existing framework.Such an upgrade can help improve the accuracy of simulation and forecasting as well as other functions.Through reviewing the development stages of the Shanghai public transportation model,the paper summarizes the key techniques and outlines the future development.
作者
沈云樟
SHEN Yunzhang(Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute,Shanghai 200040,China)
出处
《城市交通》
2023年第1期97-107,共11页
Urban Transport of China
关键词
公共交通模型
多源数据
高峰时段模拟
客流预测
OD表核验
上海市
public transportation model
multiple-dimensional data
peak hours simulation
passenger volume forecasting
OD table verification
Shanghai
