摘要
针对航天气象保障中高分辨率高空风的预报需求,利用欧洲数值预报、GRAPESGFS、导航探空数据,通过WRF模式直接输出、高空风模式产品融合、动力统计订正等方法实现了20 km以下逐250 m的高空风短期预报,并选择2019年11月—2020年3月进行试验,结果表明:U风预报好于V风;5~14 km高空风预报效果好于其它层次;在模式产品融合基础上进行的动力统计订正,预报效果最好,对于同层U、V风,4 m/s偏差内预报准确率为77.4%,6 m/s偏差内预报准确率为93.2%。
High precision high-altitude wind forecast is required in aerospace meteorological suppurt.Based on ECMWF,GRAPES-GFS,navigation sounding data,using WRF model direct output,upper wind of model products fusion,dynamic statistical correction and other methods,the short-term forecast of upper wind of 250 m below 20 km has been realized.And the period of November 2019 to March 2020 was selected for testing.The results show that:the forecast of U wind is better than the V wind;the prediction precision of upper wind at 5-14 km is better than that of other altitudes;dynamic statistical correction based on model product fusion has the best prediction precision;for U and V winds in the same layer,forecast accuracy rate within 4 m/s(6 m/s)absolute deviation is 77.4%(93.2%).
作者
施萧
冯箫
SHI Xiao;FENG Xiao(Xichang Satellite Lauch Center,Xichang 615000,China;Hainan Meteorological Observatary,Haikou 570203,China;Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2023年第1期110-114,共5页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
关键词
高空风预报
数值模式
融合
动力统计订正
high-altitude wind forecast
numerical model
fusion
dynamic statistics correction
