摘要
为明确内蒙古春玉米气候资源变化规律,量化气候变化对春玉米需水量和产量的影响,促进该区水资源优化配置和粮食安全保障,该研究基于内蒙古113个气象站点及统计作物系数值,利用五日滑动平均法,在80%保证率下分析了积温(≥10℃)及春玉米栽培模式(早熟、中早熟、中熟、中晚熟和晚熟)的空间变化,计算了春玉米生长季有效降雨量和作物需水量,采用逐步回归模型建立了气象因子和春玉米产量的关系。结果如下:1)1959-2018年内蒙古地区积温呈增加趋势,2009-2018年较1959-1968年积温增加了263℃,积温等值线发生明显偏移。不同熟型春玉米边界线北移东扩明显,中东部地区春玉米由不适宜种植区向早熟型和中熟型转变。2)1959-2018年春玉米生长期有效降雨量为114 mm,整体呈下降趋势。作物需水量为481 mm,整体呈显著增加趋势。作物需水量与有效降雨量和地下水补给量耦合度在0.02~0.40之间,整体呈下降趋势。3)气象因子中,温度呈上升趋势,其余因子整体呈下降趋势,逐步回归分析表明,降雨为影响该地区春玉米产量的主要因子。研究可为内蒙古地区春玉米空间布局及水资源高效利用提供依据。
As one of the important factors affecting crop growth,agricultural heat resources directly determine the local crop type,variety distribution,farming mode,and farming activities.The objectives of this study were to clarify the changing rule of spring maize climate resources in Inner Mongolia,to quantify the impact of climate change on spring maize water requirements and yield,and to promote the optimal allocation of water resources and food security in the region.Based on the data from 113 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia,crop growth period data,and statistical crop coefficient values,the study analyzed the spatial changes of accumulated temperature(≥10℃)and spring maize cultivation mode(early,middle early,middle,middle late and late maturity)under 80%assurance rate using the five-day moving average method.The planting boundary and variety maturity change of different maturity spring maize under the background of climate change were explored,and on this basis,the impacts of climate change on effective precipitation,crop water requirements,and irrigation water requirements during the growth period were quantified.Finally,the changing trend of the main meteorological factors during the growth period of spring maize was analyzed,and the correlation between the main meteorological factors and the yield of spring maize was established using a stepwise regression model.The results showed that:1)From 1959 to 2018,the accumulated temperature in Inner Mongolia increased.The accumulated temperature from 2009 to 2018 increased by 263℃ compared to that from 1959 to 1968,and the accumulated temperature contour shifted significantly.The boundary line of different maturity types of spring maize moved northward and expanded eastward obviously,and the change of maturity types in the central and eastern regions was the largest.Spring maize changed from unsuitable planting areas to early and medium maturity types.The early maturing area expanded to the northeast,and the area suitable for spring maize planting had an
作者
乔帅帅
高晓瑜
屈忠义
杨绣娟
畅笑
杨锋
冯鑫炜
Qiao Shuaishuai;Gao Xiaoyu;Qu Zhongyi;Yang Xiujuan;Chang Xiao;Yang Feng;Feng Xinwei(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China;College of Agronomy,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010019,China;School of Environment and Safety Engineering,North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,China;Yinshanbeilu National Field Research Station of Desert Steppe Eco-hydrological System,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Taiyuan Institute of Water Resources&Soil and Water Conservation Research,Taiyuan 030002,China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第S01期87-97,F0003,共12页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
科技部“十三五”重点研发项目(2016YFC0501301)。
关键词
作物需水量
降雨量
气候变化
春玉米
积温
产量
crop water requirements
precipitation
climate change
spring maize
accumulated temperature
yield
