摘要
政府与市场关系是经济学的世界性难题,也是中国特色社会主义市场经济的核心问题。在政府政策制定与实施过程中,经济主体会基于自己掌握的信息和认知能力,学习、解读政策含义,形成对政策影响的预期,并基于自身利益最大化原则做出最优决策,从而影响宏观经济运行。因此,研究政府政策背景下各类经济主体的预期等心理因素的产生原因与形成过程,以及经济主体心理因素对经济运行与政策效应的影响机制,是深刻认识政府与市场关系的一个重要视角。本文提出利用人工智能特别是机器学习方法,从海量非结构化大数据提取政府政策变化与各类经济主体对政策变化的反应等信息,从理论和实证两个层面分析经济政策与经济主体的互动关系,以及经济主体心理因素如何影响经济运行与政策效应,并探讨发展非结构化大数据计量经济学,推动形成分析经济政策背景下经济主体心理因素及其影响的实证研究范式,以深入研究政府与市场关系。
The relationship between government and market is not only a long-lasting debate in economics,but also the core issue of the Socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics.In the process of formulating and implementing government policies,economic entities(agents)learn and interpret policy implications based on their own information and cognitive abilities,form expectations on policy impact,and make optimal decisions by the maximization principle,which in turn affects the outcome of macroeconomy.In order to better understand the relationship between government and market,it is an important perspective to study the causes and formation process of psychological factors of various economic entities in the context of government policies,as well as the transmission mechanism through which the psychological factors affect the economic operation and policy impacts.This paper proposes a research agenda of using artificial intelligence,especially machine learning methods,to extract the information of policy changes and various economic entities’reactions afterwards from massive unstructured data.It analyzes the interaction between economic policies and economic entities from both theoretical and empirical aspects,and then it investigates how the psychological factors of economic entities affect the economic outcome and policy impacts.It also discusses the development of unstructured big data econometrics.Finally,it promotes the formation of an empirical research paradigm that analyzes the economic entities’psychological factors and their impacts in the context of government economic policies,so as to conduct in-depth research on the relationship between government and market.
作者
洪永淼
刘俸奇
薛涧坡
Hong Yongmiao;Liu Fengqi;Xue Jianpo(Academy of Mathematics and System Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences;MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation at UCAS;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Science;School of Economics,Nankai University;The Laboratory for Economic Behaviors and Policy Simulation,Nankai University;Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University;The Paula and Gregory Chow Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University)
出处
《管理世界》
北大核心
2023年第3期30-48,共19页
Journal of Management World
基金
国家自然科学基金委员会“计量建模与经济政策研究”基础科学中心项目(基金号:71988101)的资助。
关键词
政府与市场关系
心理因素
文本数据
非结构化大数据
政策传导机制
relationship between government and market
psychological factors
textual data
unstructured big data
policy transmission mechanism
