摘要
基于昌乐县251个西瓜种植户的调研数据,构建了Logistic模型,对影响种植户西瓜种植意愿的因素进行实证分析,结果表明在种植户自身禀赋中种植户的家庭人口数量、去年的西瓜总收入占家庭总收入比重、是否参加合作社、受教育程度、参加技术培训、与批发市场的距离在很大程度上对于种植户种植意愿具有促进作用;户主的年龄、去年西瓜种植面积对种植意愿具有显著的负向影响。在风险偏好方面,从是否愿意尝试新技术或是否购买农业保险这2方面都可以看到风险厌恶程度越高的户主,越不愿意扩大规模种植。在市场因素方面,去年价格的满意度对种植户的种植意愿具有显著正向影响。从边际效应分析来看,户主的年龄每增加一个单位扩大西瓜种植的概率就会降低9.6%,风险偏好度高的种植户扩大种植的概率大。综上,提出建设健全西瓜价格的预警机制,健全当地西瓜信息交流平台,健全农业保险机制,激发农业保险市场主体活力,研发和推广新技术等对策。
Based on the survey data of 251 watermelon farmers in Changle County,a logistic model was constructed to empirically analyze the factors affecting farmers’watermelon planting intention.The results showed that the household population,the proportion of total watermelon income in total household income in the previous year,the participation of cooperatives,education level,participation in technical training and the distance from the wholesale market had a great promoting effect on the planting intention of farmers.The age of the household head and the area planted in the previous year had significant negative effects on the planting intention of farmers.In terms of risk preference,it could be seen from whether they were willing to try new technologies or buy agricultural insurance that household heads with higher risk aversion were less willing to expand the scale of planting.In terms of market,the satisfaction of watermelon price in the previous year had a significant positive impact on the planting intention of farmers.From the marginal effect analysis,the probability of expanding watermelon cultivation decreased by 9.6%for each unit increase in the age of the household head,and the probability of expanding watermelon cultivation was greater for growers with high risk preference.Finally,some countermeasures were put forward,such as constructing and perfecting the early warning mechanism of watermelon price,perfecting the local watermelon information exchange platform,perfecting the agricultural insurance mechanism,stimulating the vitality of the main body of the agricultural insurance market,developing and popularizing new technologies.
作者
刘红明
刘学忠
LIU Hong-ming;LIU Xue-zhong(School of Economics and Management,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China)
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2022年第12期241-246,共6页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
山东省社会科学规划项目“新旧动能转换背景下山东省水果产业供给侧改革研究”(19CCXJ13)。
