摘要
在中国农业绿色高质量发展进程中,乡村人口老龄化问题不可忽视。为深入研究人口老龄化对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响,本文基于2000—2020年的中国省级面板数据,首先利用超效率EBM模型测度各省份的农业绿色全要素生产率,然后运用固定效应模型研究人口老龄化对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响,最后参考中介效应模型研究农地流转在人口老龄化对农业绿色全要素生产率影响中的中介效应。研究发现:从样本期看,中国农业绿色全要素生产率的年均增长率超过5%,其中东部地区的均值显著高于中部和西部地区;从影响效果看,人口老龄化能够显著提升农业绿色全要素生产率,并存在明显的区域差异,西部地区和粮食主产区的作用较显著;从中介效应看,人口老龄化显著地促进农地流转,且农地流转的中介作用为44.9%。据此从鼓励采纳农业绿色技术、完善农业生产退出保障、壮大新型农业经营主体等方面提出政策建议,以期为新时代人们科学认识乡村人口老龄化以提升农业绿色全要素生产率提供参考。
In the process of green and high-quality development of agriculture in China,the problem of rural population aging cannot be ignored.In order to further study the impact of population aging on agricultural green total factor productivity,based on the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2020,this paper first uses the super-efficiency EBM model to measure the agricultural green total factor productivity of each province,then uses the fixed effect model to study the impact of population aging on agricultural green total factor productivity,and finally uses the intermediary effect model to study the intermediary effect of agricultural land transfer in the impact of population aging on agricultural green total factor productivity.The results show that:from the sample period,the average annual growth rate of China’s agricultural green total factor productivity is more than 5%,of which the eastern region is significantly higher than the central and western regions;from the perspective of impact effect,population aging can significantly improve agricultural green total factor productivity,and there are obvious regional differences.The effect of the western region and the main grain producing areas is more significant;from the perspective of intermediary effect,population aging significantly promotes farmland transfer,and the intermediary effect of farmland transfer is 44.9%.Based on these analysis,policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of encouraging the adoption of agricultural green technology,improving the guarantee levels of withdrawal from agricultural operation,and strengthening the new agricultural management entities,so as to provide reference for people to scientifically understand the aging of rural population in the new era and improve the green total factor productivity of agriculture.
作者
金绍荣
王佩佩
Jin Shaorong;Wang Peipei
出处
《宏观经济研究》
北大核心
2023年第1期101-117,共17页
Macroeconomics
基金
国家哲学社会科学一般项目“老年人力资源开发赋能乡村振兴的路径与政策研究”(项目编号:21BRK014)的资助。
关键词
农业绿色全要素生产率
人口老龄化
农地流转
中介效应
Agricultural green total factorproductivity
Population aging
Farmland transfer
Intermediary effect
