摘要
利用2006-2015年6-9月西藏东南地区降水观测资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的全球再分析资料,探讨西藏中部联网工程沿线及藏东南地区强降水天气的成因及其预报.结果表明,藏东南地区的强降水集中于7、8月的联网工程沿线中部(林芝)、东部(昌都);引起强降水的环流型为“两高偏弱”型和“西强东弱”型.建立强降水概念模型并基于“配料法”得出了客观预报降水范围,较ECMWF模式更接近实况降水.
Based on the precipitation observation data and European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)reanalysis data from June to September 2006-2015 in Southeast Tibet.The causes and forecast of heavy precipitation along the central Tibet Network project and the southeast Tibet are studied.The results show that the heavy rainfall in southeast Tibet is concentrated in the middle(Linzhi)and east(Changdu)of July and August.The circulation patterns causing heavy rainfall can be divided into two types,two high-weak type and west-strong east-weak type.By establishing the conceptual model of heavy rainfall and based on the"ingredients-based methodology",the objective forecast precipitation range is closer to the actual precipitation than the ECMWF model.
作者
徐珂航
肖天贵
刘孙俊
索琳
俞敏杰
王慕惟
张佳伟
王映思
鄢晓茜
农雅月
XU Ke-hang;XIAO Tian-gui;LIU Sun-jun;SUO Lin;YU Min-jie;WANG Mu-wei;ZHANG Jia-wei;WANG Ying-si;YAN Xiao-xi;NONG Ya-yue(Southwest Branch State Grid Corporation of China,Chengdu 610000,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;National Power Grid Corp Fujian Electric Power Company,Fuzhou 350000,China;National Power Grid Corp He’nan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450000,China)
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期720-726,734,共8页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家电网公司科技项目(SGLNDK00KJJS1700200)
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK010408)
国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAC03B05)。
关键词
强降水
西藏东南地区
概念模型
配料法
heavy precipitation
Southeast of Tibet
conceptual model
ingredients-based methodology
