摘要
基于NEX-GDDP数据集,采用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析法对北京市2006—2099年极端降水时序变化特征进行分析。结果表明:在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,本世纪内北京地区极端降水呈现增加趋势,世纪末期有较大幅度增加,RCP8.5情景下极端降水增加程度更大。在RCP4.5情景下,年降水量、大雨日数、SDII等多数极端降水指数在2040年前后发生增加突变,而在RCP8.5情景下极端降水表现出更为稳定的上升趋势。极端降水事件在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的主周期均为56年,在该特征尺度下各指标呈现少→多→少→多→少的循环交替,RCP8.5情景下降水量、降水频率和降水强度震荡更加明显。
Based on the NEX-GDDP dataset,the characteristics of extreme precipitation time series changes in Beijing in the future period(2006-2099)have been investigated using the linear regression,Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis.The results show that the extreme precipitation events in Beijing increase in terms of precipitation amount,frequency and intensity under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the 21th century,and increased substantially at the end of the century.The extreme precipitation increases more under RCP8.5 scenario.In the RCP4.5 scenario,most indices,such as PRCPTOT,R25 mm,SDII,show a significantly upward trend after the mutation.The mutation of indices occurs around the 2040 s.The fluctuation trend before the mutation may reflect the time lag effect under climate change.Extreme precipitation events under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have the same first main cycle,which is the 56-year characteristic scale.Bases on the 56-year characteristic scale,all of the extreme precipitation indices alternates as less→more→less→more→less for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The periodicity of amount,frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation are more obvious in RCP8.5 scenario compared with those in RCP4.5 scenario.
作者
汲欣愉
黄弘
JI Xinyu;HUANG Hong(Institute of Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Department of Engineering Physics,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期177-185,共9页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“应对风险的城市基础设施韧性评估与管理”(72091512)。
