摘要
2016年中国农业生产经营人员中55岁及以上的人员占比高达33.9%,农业活动所依赖的农村人口老龄化是农业劳动力老龄化形成的最主要动力之一。农业劳动力老龄化会直接引起农业人力资本和物质资本投入比例的变化,不可避免地对农业生产经营产生影响。为进一步了解人口老龄化对农业生产的影响并探究相关对策,本文引入新兴的农业经济韧性概念,以2010—2019年国内31个省市的基本情况作为样本数据,通过实证研究发现人口老龄化程度的加深会削弱农业经济韧性,其中农业科技的应用水平在人口老龄化对农业经济韧性的影响中起到较显著的部分中介作用。基于研究结果,提出在同步推进农业现代化和农业绿色发展的进程中,应辩证地看待人口老龄化与农业生产发展的关系,充分发挥老龄农业劳动力的优势,并重点解决其整体素质较低、生产效率不高的相关问题。
Data from the Third National Agricultural Census show that the proportion of people aged 55 and above working in China’s agricultural production and operation was as high as 33.9% in 2016. The aging of the rural population, on which agricultural activities depend, is one of the most important drivers of an aging agricultural labor force that will directly cause changes in the ratio of human and physical capital inputs in rural areas, thus inevitably impacting on agricultural economy. Therefore, in order to further evaluate the impact of population aging on agricultural production and explore countermeasures, this paper introduces an emerging concept referred as to the agricultural economic resilience. Taking the basic situation of 31 domestic provinces and cities from 2010 to 2019 as sample data, it’s found through empirical research that the deepening of population aging weakens agricultural economic resilience, while the application of agricultural science and technology shows a significant partial intermediary effect. Based on the research results, this paper proposes that in the process of simultaneously promoting agricultural modernization and green agricultural development, the relationship between population aging and agricultural production development should be analyzed with a dialectical view. The advantages of the aging agricultural labor force should be brought into full play, and the problems including low population quality and productivity need to be addressed.
作者
颜榕
姚型浩
米红
YAN Rong;YAO Xinghao;MI Hong(School of International Studies,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)
出处
《浙江海洋大学学报（人文科学版）》
2022年第6期71-81,共11页
Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University(Humanities Sciences)
基金
国家重点研发计划“绿色宜居村镇技术创新”重点专项“村镇土地多维度多要素可追溯调查技术研发”(编号:2020YFD1100202)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“发展多层次、多支柱养老保险体系研究”(编号:21ZDA101)
浙江省社会科学基金重大项目“从‘未富先老’到‘渐富快老’:中国人口老龄化多状态预测与养老政策仿真研究”(编号:19YSXK03ZD)。
关键词
农业经济韧性
人口老龄化
农业科技应用
农业现代化
resilience of agricultural economy
population aging
agricultural technology
agricultural modernization
