摘要
利用昌都市气象站常规观测资料、MICAPS资料和FY-4A气象卫星反演产品,检验分析中国气象局人工影响天气中心开发的CPEFS模式对昌都市一次降水天气过程的预报效果。结果表明,模式较好地预报此次降水过程,云系的发展演变趋势与实况基本吻合;云宏观场的分布形势和实况基本一致,但是云顶高度和云顶温度较实况偏低;云系垂直分布特征、云系性质、云顶温度和零度层高度与实况基本一致;模式预报降水场雨带位置和实况一致,雨量较实况偏大。
Based on the conventional observation data of Qamdo Meteorological Station,MICAPS data and FY-4A meteorological satellite retrieval products,the prediction effect of CPEFS model developed by the CMA Weather Modification Centre(WMC)on a precipitation weather process in Qamdo is tested and analyzed.The results show that when the model predicts the precipitation process well,the development and evolution trend of the cloud system is basically consistent with the actual situation;the distribution situation of the cloud macro field is basically the same as the actual situation,but the cloud top height and cloud top temperature are lower than the actual situation;the vertical distribution characteristics of cloud system,cloud system properties,cloud top temperature and zero layer height are basically consistent with the actual situation;the location of rain belt in the precipitation field predicted by the model is consistent with the actual situation,and the rainfall is higher than the actual values.
出处
《科技创新与应用》
2023年第4期72-78,共7页
Technology Innovation and Application
基金
西藏自治区自然科学基金项目(XZ202001ZR0028G)。
