摘要
粤港澳大湾区城市高质量发展和空气污染治理进入精细化阶段,需要加强针对空气污染超标期、典型区的相关研究,促进下一阶段空气质量全面达标。文章采用逐步回归模拟2015年日均浓度超标时的PM_(2.5)浓度空间特征,分析了2019-2021年重点时段的浓度值演变、同期数值增减情况。结果表明:(1)2015年超标期下PM_(2.5)浓度空间上呈现“中心-外围”浓度值递减的特征,全域浓度值介于50~60μg·m^(-3)之间,当中心浓度值显著超标发生时,高值范围会向外扩散。(2)经过检验,ARIMA模型模拟短期城市群PM2.5浓度的精度较高,2019-2021年来,1~2月的浓度值增减不明显,数值保持稳定;1月份的浓度值为全年最高,需在该时段重点管控PM_(2.5)浓度,各市10~12月浓度值均呈现递减的趋势。
The high-quality urban development and air pollution control in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has entered the refinement stage. It is necessary to strengthen the relevant research on air pollution exceeding the standard period and typical areas, so as to promote the overall air quality reaching the standard in the next stage. In this paper, stepwise regression is used to simulate the spatial characteristics of PM_(2.5) concentration when the daily average concentration exceeded the standard in 2015. The evolution of concentration values and the increase and decrease of values in the same period in key periods from 2019 to 2021 are analyzed. The results show that under the exceeding standard period in 2015, the concentration of PM_(2.5) shows the characteristics of “center periphery” concentration value decreasing in space, and the global concentration value is between 50~60 μg·m^(-3), when the central concentration value significantly exceeds the standard, the high value range will spread outward. After testing, ARIMA model has high accuracy in predicting PM2.5concentration in short-term urban agglomeration. From 2019 to 2021, the concentration value in January and February has not increased significantly, and the value remains stable. The concentration value in January is the highest in the whole year. It is necessary to focus on the control of PM_(2.5) concentration in this period. The concentration value of each city from October to December shows a decreasing trend.
作者
李天翔
蒋超
龚建周
LI Tian-xiang;JIANG Chao;GONG Jian-zhou(Guangzhou Long-term Landscape Architecture Design Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510520,China;School of Geographic Science and Remote Sensing,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China)
出处
《广州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2022年第3期67-73,共7页
Journal of Guangzhou University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42071123)。
关键词
粤港澳大湾区
空气污染
超标期
浓度模拟
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
air pollution
exceedance period
concentration simulation
