摘要
本文基于景德镇陶瓷文旅产业产值数据,以陶瓷文化产业产值为因变量构建了陶瓷文旅产业互动关系的ADL与ECM模型,分别揭示了陶瓷文旅产业产值之间的长期均衡与短期动态效应。所得结论为:第一,陶瓷文旅产业的产值序列存在双向因果关系;第二,陶瓷文旅产业的产值存在长期均衡关系,陶瓷文化产业产值对陶瓷旅游产业产值的长期弹性为2.01,即其他条件不变,陶瓷旅游产业产值每增加1%,陶瓷文化产业产值将相应增加2.01%;第三,短期内,一方面,陶瓷旅游产业对陶瓷文化产业有较强的正向拉动作用,陶瓷旅游产业产值每增加1个百分点,陶瓷文化产业产值将增加约1.55个百分点;另一方面,ECM模型的误差修正项具有反向调控功能,一旦变量发生偏离,误差修正项会以0.91的调整力度将其调回均衡状态,调整周期为33天左右。
Based on the output value data of Jingdezhen ceramic culture and tourism industry,taking the output value of ceramic cultural industry as the dependent variable, the ADL and ECM models of the interactive relationship between the ceramic cultural and tourism industry are constructed, which reveal the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic effects between the output value of ceramic culture and tourism industry.The conclusions are: First, the output value sequence of ceramic culture and tourism industry has a two-way causal relationship;Second, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the output value of ceramic culture and tourism industry. The long-term elasticity of the output value of ceramic culture industry to the output value of ceramic tourism industry is 2.01, that is, other conditions remain unchanged, for every 1% increase in the output value of ceramic tourism industry, the output value of ceramic cultural industry will increase by 2.01%;Third, in the short term, on the one hand, the ceramic tourism industry has a strong positive pulling effect on the ceramic cultural industry, for every 1% increase in the output value of ceramic tourism industry, the output value of ceramic cultural industry will increase by about 1.55%;On the other hand, the error correction term of ECM model has the function of reverse regulation, Once the variable deviates, the error correction item will bring it back to equilibrium state with an adjustment force of 0.91,and the adjustment cycle is about 33 days.
作者
占永志
ZHAN Yong-zhi(Jingdezhen University,333000,Jingdezhen,Jiangxi,China)
出处
《特区经济》
2022年第12期149-152,共4页
Special Zone Economy
基金
景德镇市科技计划项目(软科学)(20212RKX003)
江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(GL21116)。
关键词
陶瓷文化产业
陶瓷旅游产业
互动关系
景德镇
Ceramic Culture Industry
Ceramic Tourism Industry
Interaction
Jingdezhen
