摘要
中国和日本作为亚洲最主要的两个国家,在全球特别是亚洲应对气候变化的进程中将发挥重要作用。从经济发展、能源消费、碳排放等多维度对中日两国进行对比分析,结果表明,中国经济总量增长较快,但人均GDP水平和第三产业占比仍与日本有一定差距,尚处于工业化后期;中国经济快速发展,能源消耗总量增加明显,能源消费结构仍以煤炭为主,与日本以石油为主、煤炭和天然气互为有效补充的用能结构相比,仍显单一;受碳排放总量及人口增长等多重因素叠加影响,中日两国人均碳排放量差距不断缩小,中国人均碳排放量或将于近期超过日本。通过对碳排放脱钩指数的判断,近期中国碳排放与经济增长呈现弱脱钩性,而日本碳排放与经济增长呈现强脱钩性。Granger因果关系分析结果表明,中国碳排放量与电力能源消费占比存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且电力能源消费占比是碳排放量的单向Granger原因;而日本由于电力能源消费占比较为平稳,其与碳排放量之间无明显Granger因果关系。建议我国要加快第三产业发展,加速形成以服务业为主导的产业结构;改善现有以煤炭为主的用能体系,促进以风、光为代表的新能源在能源消费中的比重;推动碳减排领域节能技术的开发与应用,提高能源利用效率。
As the two most important countries in Asia,China and Japan will play important roles in the response to climate change globally,especially in Asia.The comparative analysis of China and Japan from the aspects of economic development,energy consumption and carbon emissions shows that China ′ s economic aggregate is growing rapidly,but the per capita GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry still lag behind Japan,and China is still in the late stage of industrialization.With the rapid development of China ′ s economy,the total energy consumption has increased significantly,but the energy consumption structure,which is still dominated by coal,is single compared with Japan′ s energy consumption structure which is dominated by oil and effectively supplemented by coal and natural gas.Affected by the superposition of multiple factors such as total carbon emissions and population growth,the gap between China and Japan in per capita carbon emissions continues to narrow,and China′s per capita carbon emissions may exceed Japan ′s per capita carbon emissions in the near future.Judging by the decoupling index of carbon emissions,recently China′s carbon emissions and economic growth showed a weak decoupling,while Japan′ s carbon emissions and economic growth showed a strong decoupling.According to the Granger causality analysis results,there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between China ′ s carbon emissions and the proportion of electric energy consumption,and the proportion of electric energy consumption is the one-way Granger cause of carbon e-missions,while in Japan,the proportion of electric energy consumption has no obvious Granger causality with carbon emissions because it is relatively stable.It is suggested that China should accelerate the development of the tertiary industry and accelerate the formation of an industrial structure dominated by the service indus-try,improve the existing energy consumption system dominated by coal and promote the proportion of new energy represented
作者
张忠华
邵羽函
胡杰
Zhang Zhonghua;Shao Yuhan;Hu Jie(Northeast Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.of CPECC,Changchun Jilin 130021)
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2022年第11期1-9,共9页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
碳排放
经济发展
用能结构
脱钩指数
电力能源消费
因果关系
carbon emissions
economic development
energy consumption structure
decoupling index
electric energy consumption
causality
