摘要
依据收集的中国珍稀濒危樟属乔木分布数据,结合1970—2000年及未来(2061—2080年)气候环境数据,选取19个生物气候因素、3个地形因素、15个土壤因素,应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统软件(ArcGIS),构建珍稀濒危樟属乔木分布区预测模型,预测中国珍稀濒危樟属乔木的潜在地理分布,分析影响其分布的主要环境因素,并对比分析未来不同气候环境时中国珍稀濒危樟属乔木地理分布动态。结果表明:①影响中国珍稀濒危樟属乔木地理分布的主要环境因素贡献率,由大到小依次为最冷月份最低气温(27.24%)、气温季节性变动系数(20.74%)、年降水量(16.82%)、等温性(12.68%)、气温日较差(9.94%)、土壤基本饱和度(7.69%)、海拔(4.88%)。②中国珍稀濒危樟属乔木地理分布模拟的模型精度值均大于0.9,预测精度达到“很准确”水平。③17种珍稀濒危樟属乔木广泛分布于长江以南区域,天竺桂(Cinnamomum japonicum)、油樟(Cinnamomum longepaniculatum)、阔叶樟(Cinnamomum platyphyllum)、假桂皮树(Cinnamomum tonkinense)适生分布区可延伸至陕西南部、甘肃南部等地区。④未来不同气候环境,17种珍稀濒危樟属乔木潜在分布区面积呈现不同程度的扩张与缩小趋势,除假桂皮树和粗脉桂(Cinnamomum validinerve)外,其潜在适生分布区域整体上呈现出向北扩张,假桂皮树、粗脉桂在高纬度地区的部分潜在适生分布区域消失,扩张区域呈现北界南移的趋势。
By collecting the distribution data of rare and endangered species of Cinnamomum in China,combined with the climate and environmental data from 1970 to 2000 and the future(2061-2080),19 bioclimatic factors,3 topographic factors,and 15 soil factors were selected,and the maximum entropy model and ArcGIS were used to build a prediction model for the distribution area of rare and endangered species of Cinnamomum,predict the potential geographical distribution of rare and endangered species of Cinnamomum in China,analyze the main environmental factors affecting their distribution,and compare the dynamics of geographical distribution of rare and endangered species of Cinnamomum in China under different climate environments in the future.The results showed that:(1)The contribution rate of the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of rare and endangered species of Cinnamomum in China,from large to small,are the min temperature of coldest month(27.24%),temperature seasonality(20.74%),annual precipitation(16.82%),isothermality(12.68%),mean diurnal range(9.94%),topsoil base saturation(7.69%),altitude(4.88%).(2)The model accuracy value of geographical distribution of rare and endangered species of Cinnamomum in China were greater than 0.9,and the prediction accuracy has reached the level of“very accurate”.(3)Seventeen rare and endangered species of Cinnamomum are widely distributed in the south of the Yangtze River.Among them,the suitable distribution regions of C.japonicum,C.longepaniculatum,C.platyphyllum,and C.tonkinense extend to southern Shaanxi,southern Gansu.(4)Under the different climate environments in the future,the potential suitable distribution areas of 17 rare and endangered species of Cinnamomum will expand and shrink to varying degrees,except for C.tonkinense and C.validinerve,the potential suitable distribution areas will expand northward as a whole.On the contrary,part of the potential suitable distribution areas of C.tonkinense and C.validinerve in high latitudes will disap
作者
李慧
滕皎
殷晓洁
李干
陈智
王妍
Li Hui;Teng Jiao;Yin Xiaojie;Li Gan;Chen Zhi;Wang Yan(Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,P.R.China)
出处
《东北林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期43-53,共11页
Journal of Northeast Forestry University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31700467)
西南林业大学博士科研启动基金项目(112003)。
关键词
樟属
珍稀濒危乔木
气候变化
适生分布区
地理分布
Cinnamomum
Rare and endangered wood species
Climate change
Suitable distribution area
Geographical distribution
