摘要
为保障大中型水库工程实施过程中的社会稳定,针对以往评估中评价指标的不确定性和一般模糊评估方法确定权重的不合理性,建立了AHP-熵权法综合评价模型,对指标间的相关性分析以及对评估指标的基础数据质量高低进行评判确定综合权重;引入物元可拓理论得出评价指标可靠性的综合关联度,根据最大隶属度选择原则评估大中型水库工程社会稳定风险等级;提出了基于AHP-熵权法与物元可拓理论的大中型水库工程社会稳定风险评估方法,并基于QJ水电站建设工作实例论证所构造方法的可行性与有效性,结果表明:评估结果与实际情况一致,该风险评估方法准确、可靠,可为大中型水库工程社会稳定风险评估提供科学依据。
In order to ensure the social stability during the implementation of large and medium-sized reservoir projects,a social stability risk assessment method for large and medium-sized reservoir projects based on AHP-entropy weight method and matter-element extension theory is proposed.Aiming at the un-certainty of the evaluation indicators in the previous evaluation and the unreasonableness of the weights determined by the general fuzzy evaluation method,a comprehensive evaluation model of AHP-entropy weight method is established.The matter-element extension theory is introduced to obtain the comprehensive correlation degree of the reliability of the evaluation indicators,and the social stability risk assessment level of large and medium-sized reservoir projects is determined according to the principle of maximum membership degree selection.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are demonstrated based on the construction case of QJ hydropower station,and the results show that the assessment results are consistent with the actual situation,and the risk assessment method is accurate and reliable,which can provide scientific basis for the social stability risk assessment of large and medium-sized reservoir projects.
作者
王黎阳
马凌
王鹏飞
张璐瑶
WANG Liyang;MA Ling;WANG Pengfei;ZHANG Luyao(PowerChina Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited,Xi'an 710065,China;School of Resources Engineering,Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an 710055,China)
出处
《西北水电》
2022年第6期71-78,共8页
Northwest Hydropower
关键词
水利水电工程
社会稳定风险评估
AHP-熵权法
可拓学理论
water conservancy and hydropower projects
social stability risk assessment
AHP-entropy weight method
matter-element extension theory
