摘要
黄河源区年内降水集中,洪水风险大,重建源区雨季降水和汛期径流量对于提高径流预报预测精度及防洪防灾具有重要科学意义和应用价值。本文利用黄河源区及周边筛选的16个树轮年表,采用嵌套主成分层次贝叶斯回归模型,估算参数后验分布替代固定值以考虑不确定性,重建了黄河源区过去1160 a的雨季降水;提出了基于年径流的分类占比回归模型,以考虑汛期径流量与年径流量的一致性,将黄河源区汛期径流量展延至公元159年。结果表明:①嵌套主成分层次贝叶斯回归模型的误差缩减值(E_(R))和有效系数(E_(C))评价指标值均显著高于0,分类占比回归模型的E_(R)和E_(C)值最高分别达0.90和0.88,重建结果可靠性较高;②即使在千年尺度下,1979—1985年亦是较为不寻常的汛期高径流量时期。
The intra-annual precipitation of the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin(HCYRB)occurs in a concentrated manner,which leads to a high flood risk.It is of great scientific significance and application value to reconstruct the rainy season precipitation and flood season streamflow of the HCYRB for improving the runoff prediction accuracy and for flood and disaster prevention.A nested principal component hierarchical Bayesian regression model,which estimates the posterior distribution of parameters instead of fixed values to consider the uncertainty,was used to reconstruct the rainy season precipitation in the past 1160 a using 16 tree-ring chronologies in and near HCYRB;categorical proportion regression model based on annual streamflow was proposed to reconstruct the flood season streamflow of the HCYRB up to C.E.159 year.The results showed that:①Reduction of error(E_(R))and coefficient of efficiency(E_(C))values obtained with the nested principal component hierarchical Bayesian model were significantly higher than 0,and those obtained with the categorical proportion regression model were up to 0.90 and 0.88,respectively,which indicates that the reconstructions of the rainy season precipitation and flood season streamflow of HCYRB are reliable;②Even in the millennium time scale,1979—1985 represented an unusual period of high runoff during the flood season.
作者
王文卓
张建云
陈峰
贾本有
吴淑君
王国庆
WANG Wenzhuo;ZHANG Jianyun;CHEN Feng;JIA Benyou;WU Shujun;WANG Guoqing(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Research Center for Climate Change,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China;Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China)
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期868-880,共13页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52109010)
博士后创新人才支持计划资助项目(BX20200113)。
关键词
雨季降水重建
汛期径流重建
树木年轮
嵌套主成分层次贝叶斯回归模型
分类占比回归模型
黄河源区
reconstruction of rainy season precipitation
reconstruction of flood season streamflow
tree ring
nested principal component hierarchical Bayesian regression model
categorical proportion regression
the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin
