摘要
人工智能技术在制造业的广泛应用会对劳动力市场产生重要影响。本文基于2013—2019年中国28个制造业细分行业数据探究了人工智能技术对制造业就业的产业关联溢出效应。研究结果表明,从垂直产业链溢出维度,人工智能技术通过技术关联和产品关联路径对制造业就业规模产生显著为负的前向和后向溢出效应,对制造业就业结构优化具有显著为正的前向溢出效应,但其后向溢出效应在考察期内尚未显现。从水平技术关联溢出维度,人才流动与产业竞合能促使邻近行业人工智能技术对本行业的就业规模扩张和就业结构优化分别产生显著负溢出和正溢出效应。进一步研究发现,在考虑科研水平、资本深化和行业规模的调节作用后,人工智能技术对本行业的岗位替代效应有所缓解,对劳动力就业结构的优化效应不断加强。本文从产业关联溢出视角揭示了人工智能技术对制造业就业的影响,为合理引导人工智能技术发展和实现稳就业提供了有针对性的政策参考。
The wide application of artificial intelligence technology in the manufacturing industry can make an important impact on the labor market.Based on the data of 28 manufacturing subsectors in China from 2013 to 2019,this paper explores the industrial association spillover of artificial intelligence technology on the manufacturing employment.The research results show that,from the perspective of vertical industrial chain spillover dimension,artificial intelligence technology has a significant negative forward and backward spillover effect on the manufacturing employment scale through technology association and product association path,while it has a significant positive forward spillover effect on the optimization of manufacturing employment structure.However,the backward spillover effect has not emerged in the study period.From the perspective of horizontal technology correlation spillover dimension,talent flow and industry competition and cooperation can cause that artificial intelligence technology in adjacent industries has significant negative spillover and positive spillover effect on the expansion of employment scale and optimization of employment structure.Further research shows that after considering the moderating effects of scientific research level,capital deepening and industry size,the job replacement effect of artificial intelligence technology in this industry is alleviated,and the optimization effect of artificial intelligence technology on labor employment structure is strengthened.This paper reveals the impact of artificial intelligence technology on manufacturing employment from the perspective of industrial association spillover,which provides a targeted policy reference for reasonably guiding the development of artificial intelligence technology and realizing stable employment.
作者
钞小静
沈路
廉园梅
CHAO Xiao-jing;SHEN Lu;LIAN Yuan-mei(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China)
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第12期3-20,共18页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(21BJL002)
陕西省教育厅重点科学研究计划项目(20JT066)。
关键词
人工智能技术
劳动力就业规模
劳动力就业结构
产业链溢出
技术关联溢出
artificial intelligence technology
employment scale of labor force
employment structure of labor force
industrial chain spillover
technical association spillover
