摘要
从碳中和视角出发,考虑农地利用所产生的二氧化碳“固”与“排”的平衡,运用Super-SBM模型测算2005-2019年31个省(区、市)的农地利用效率,并分析其时空特征及动态演进趋势,利用时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR模型)探讨各影响因素作用机理的时空异质性和演变规律。结果表明:(1)中国农地利用效率上升至相对有效水平,其中西南地区最高但呈逐年下降趋势,华北地区和西北地区陷入“内卷化”陷阱,各地区农地利用效率的差异呈“扩大-缩小-扩大”的变化趋势;(2)相较OLS和GWR模型,GTWR模型解释力和拟合效果更好,种植结构对农地利用效率影响最大且为正向影响;(3)各影响因素对农地利用效率的影响程度和方向呈时空异质性;(4)各因素对农地利用效率的影响在东西方向的变化趋势大于南北方向,城镇化的影响在东西方向上最敏感,复种指数的影响在南北方向上最敏感。
From the perspective of carbon neutrality and the balance between carbon fixation and carbon emissions from agricultural land use,this paper uses Super-SBM model to calculate the agricultural land use efficiency of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2019,and analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics and dynamic evolution trend of agricultural land use efficiency.The geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)is used to investigate the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and evolution of influencing factors.The results show that:1)The overall level of agricultural land use efficiency in China had risen to a high efficiency level with Southwest China being the highest,but showing a downward trend with time and North China and Northwest China stuck in“involution”.The regional gap of agricultural land use efficiency in China showed a trend of“expanding-shrinking-expanding”;2)GTWR model was better than OLS model and GWR model with planting structure having the greatest positive impact on agricultural land use efficiency;3)The intensity and direction of influencing factors of agricultural land use efficiency showed spatio-temporal heterogeneity;4)The changing trends of influencing factors of agricultural land use efficiency from the east to the west was greater than that from the south to the north.The urbanization rate had the most sensitive influence on the agricultural land use efficiency from the east to the west.The multiple cropping index had the most sensitive influence on agricultural land use efficiency from the south to the north.Finally,It provides inspiration for making policies of low carbon and efficient utilization of agricultural land according to local conditions.
作者
刘雪琪
李波
LIU Xueqi;LI Bo
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
北大核心
2023年第1期197-209,共13页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“巴黎协定下中国农业碳排放权省域分配及协同减排策略研究”(71903197)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“西部地区巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴战略衔接机制研究”(21JZD028)。
