摘要
运用InVEST生境质量模型分析了1980—2020年洪泽湖流域生境质量时空变化特征,通过Johnes输出系数模型计算不同情景下污染负荷输出量,利用回归模型建立污染负荷与生境质量关系,预测流域污染负荷削减措施对生境质量的改善效果。结果表明:洪泽湖流域生境质量逐年恶化,空间上呈“南优北差、东优西差”分布格局;流域污染负荷输出呈逐年上升趋势,且污染负荷在差生境质量区域有明显集聚效应,污染负荷与生境质量呈显著负相关;在自然发展(污染负荷无削减)情景下,2030年流域生境质量平均值与2020年相比较将降低1.0%~2.4%;根据流域污染负荷削减目标,在污染负荷削减率为8%情景下,流域生境质量平均值较自然发展情景提升0.9%~2.2%,在污染负荷削减率为18%情景下,流域生境质量平均值较自然发展情景提升1.3%~2.7%,流域污染负荷削减对于提高生境质量具有显著效果。
With the InVEST habitat quality model used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of habitat quality in the Hongze Lake Basin from 1980 to 2020,the Johnes classical output coefficient model used to calculate pollution load output under different scenarios,and the regression model used to establish the relationship between pollution load and habitat quality,the effect of pollution load reduction measures on habitat quality was predicted.The results showed that the habitat quality deteriorated year by year in the Hongze Lake Basin,presenting a spatial pattern of south superior to north and east superior to west;the output of pollution load increased year by year,the pollution load had an obvious agglomeration effect in bad habitat quality areas,and there was a significant negative correlation between pollution load and habitat quality;under the condition of natural development(without reduction of pollution load),the average habitat quality in 2030 would further reduce by 1.0%to 2.4%,as compared with that in 2020;according to the watershed pollution load reduction target,the average habitat quality of the Hongze Lake Basin would increase by 0.9%to 2.2%in the scenario with the pollution load reduction rate of 8%,and the value would increase by 1.3%to 2.7%in the scenario with the pollution load reduction of 18%,as compared with the natural development scenario,demonstrating that pollution load reduction has significant effect on improving habitat quality.
作者
王俊
刘超
王智源
陈求稳
黄玉
胡晓东
刘东升
吴苏舒
闫丹丹
WANG Jun;LIU Chao;WANG Zhiyuan;CHEN Qiuwen;HUANG Yu;HU Xiaodong;LIU Dongsheng;WU Sushu;YAN Dandan(Jiangsu Province Water Conservancy Science Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;School of River and Ocean Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Eco-Environmental Research Department,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《水资源保护》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第1期190-199,共10页
Water Resources Protection
基金
国家自然科学基金(52121006,52070132,U2040209)
江苏省自然科学基金优秀青年项目(BK20200053)
江苏省水利科技项目(2019004)。
